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icon for Trump goes to space in 2026?

Trump goes to space in 2026?

icon for Trump goes to space in 2026?

Trump goes to space in 2026?

2% 확률
Polymarket
신규
2% 확률
Polymarket
신규
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump is physically aboard any aircraft or spacecraft that reaches or crosses the U.S. space threshold by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The U.S. space threshold is defined as 50 miles above mean sea level. Whether Donald Trump crosses the internationally recognized Karaman line will not impact this market’s resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors "No" at 98% implied probability, driven by the total absence of any official announcements, training regimens, or preparations for President Trump to participate in a spaceflight this year, despite his administration's aggressive space policy agenda. Recent highlights include Trump's April 29 White House hosting of NASA's Artemis II lunar flyby astronauts—targeted for no later than April—and his December 2025 executive order establishing U.S. space superiority, alongside vows for a crewed Moon landing before 2029. Structural barriers loom large: astronaut selection by NASA or private firms like SpaceX demands years of physical conditioning unsuitable for an 80-year-old president amid national security duties. A surprise private orbital mission could theoretically alter odds, but medical clearances, launch timelines, and risk assessments render it implausible absent late-breaking developments.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump is physically aboard any aircraft or spacecraft that reaches or crosses the U.S. space threshold by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The U.S. space threshold is defined as 50 miles above mean sea level. Whether Donald Trump crosses the internationally recognized Karaman line will not impact this market’s resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$3,706
종료일
2026.12.31
마켓 개설일
Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump is physically aboard any aircraft or spacecraft that reaches or crosses the U.S. space threshold by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The U.S. space threshold is defined as 50 miles above mean sea level. Whether Donald Trump crosses the internationally recognized Karaman line will not impact this market’s resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump is physically aboard any aircraft or spacecraft that reaches or crosses the U.S. space threshold by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The U.S. space threshold is defined as 50 miles above mean sea level. Whether Donald Trump crosses the internationally recognized Karaman line will not impact this market’s resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors "No" at 98% implied probability, driven by the total absence of any official announcements, training regimens, or preparations for President Trump to participate in a spaceflight this year, despite his administration's aggressive space policy agenda. Recent highlights include Trump's April 29 White House hosting of NASA's Artemis II lunar flyby astronauts—targeted for no later than April—and his December 2025 executive order establishing U.S. space superiority, alongside vows for a crewed Moon landing before 2029. Structural barriers loom large: astronaut selection by NASA or private firms like SpaceX demands years of physical conditioning unsuitable for an 80-year-old president amid national security duties. A surprise private orbital mission could theoretically alter odds, but medical clearances, launch timelines, and risk assessments render it implausible absent late-breaking developments.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump is physically aboard any aircraft or spacecraft that reaches or crosses the U.S. space threshold by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The U.S. space threshold is defined as 50 miles above mean sea level. Whether Donald Trump crosses the internationally recognized Karaman line will not impact this market’s resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$3,706
종료일
2026.12.31
마켓 개설일
Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump is physically aboard any aircraft or spacecraft that reaches or crosses the U.S. space threshold by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The U.S. space threshold is defined as 50 miles above mean sea level. Whether Donald Trump crosses the internationally recognized Karaman line will not impact this market’s resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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자주 묻는 질문

"Trump goes to space in 2026?"은 Polymarket의 예측 마켓으로, 트레이더들이 이 이벤트가 발생할 것인지에 따라 "Yes" 또는 "No" 주식을 매수 및 매도합니다. 현재 크라우드소싱 확률은 "Yes"에 대해 2%입니다. 예를 들어 "Yes"가 2¢에 거래되면 마켓은 이 이벤트가 발생할 확률을 2%로 부여합니다. 이 확률은 트레이더들이 새로운 진전과 정보에 반응함에 따라 지속적으로 변화합니다. 정확한 결과의 주식은 마켓 정산 시 각 $1에 교환 가능합니다.

"Trump goes to space in 2026?"은 Polymarket에서 새로 생성된 마켓입니다, Apr 30, 2026에 시작됨. 초기 마켓으로서 확률을 설정하고 마켓의 초기 가격 신호를 수립하는 첫 번째 트레이더 중 하나가 될 기회입니다. 이 페이지를 북마크하여 마켓이 성장함에 따라 거래량과 거래 활동을 추적할 수도 있습니다.

"Trump goes to space in 2026?"에서 거래하려면 답이 "Yes"인지 "No"인지 선택하세요. 각 쪽에는 마켓의 내재 확률을 반영하는 현재 가격이 있습니다. 금액을 입력하고 "거래"를 클릭하세요. "Yes" 주식을 매수하고 결과가 "Yes"로 정산되면 각 주식은 $1을 지급합니다. "No"로 정산되면 "Yes" 주식은 $0을 지급합니다. 수익을 확정하거나 손실을 줄이고 싶다면 정산 전 언제든지 주식을 매도할 수 있습니다.

"Trump goes to space in 2026?"의 현재 확률은 "Yes"에 대해 2%입니다. 이는 Polymarket 크라우드가 현재 이 이벤트가 발생할 확률을 2%로 보고 있음을 의미합니다. 이 확률은 실제 거래에 기반하여 실시간으로 업데이트되어 마켓이 기대하는 바에 대한 지속적으로 업데이트되는 신호를 제공합니다.

"Trump goes to space in 2026?"의 정산 규칙은 각 결과가 승자로 선언되기 위해 정확히 무엇이 일어나야 하는지를 정의합니다 — 결과를 결정하는 데 사용되는 공식 데이터 소스를 포함합니다. 이 페이지의 댓글 위 "규칙" 섹션에서 완전한 정산 기준을 검토할 수 있습니다. 거래 전 규칙을 주의 깊게 읽는 것을 권장합니다. 이 마켓이 어떻게 정산되는지를 관리하는 정확한 조건, 예외 사항, 출처를 명시하고 있습니다.