**Republican nominee Brandon Herrera leads trader consensus at 73% implied probability to win Texas's 23rd Congressional District House seat against Democrat Katy Padilla Stout, driven by the district's R+7 partisan lean and Solid Republican rating from Cook Political Report.** This border-spanning, majority-Hispanic battleground became fully open after incumbent Tony Gonzales resigned April 14 amid a scandal involving an extramarital affair, following his March primary setback where Herrera forced a canceled runoff. Early Public Policy Polling (March 10-11) shows Herrera ahead 42%-40% in a GOP-friendly sample, with no subsequent surveys eroding the edge. Democrats highlight Herrera's polarizing past—edgy YouTube persona and past controversial remarks—to woo moderates and Latino voters shifting left, but GOP base strength and historical midterm dynamics sustain the favorite status ahead of the November 3 general election.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$16,578 거래량
$16,578 거래량
2026.11.03
Republican Party
73%
Democratic Party
26%
$16,578 거래량
$16,578 거래량
2026.11.03
Republican Party
$9,335 거래량
73%
Democratic Party
$7,243 거래량
26%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Republican nominee Brandon Herrera leads trader consensus at 73% implied probability to win Texas's 23rd Congressional District House seat against Democrat Katy Padilla Stout, driven by the district's R+7 partisan lean and Solid Republican rating from Cook Political Report.** This border-spanning, majority-Hispanic battleground became fully open after incumbent Tony Gonzales resigned April 14 amid a scandal involving an extramarital affair, following his March primary setback where Herrera forced a canceled runoff. Early Public Policy Polling (March 10-11) shows Herrera ahead 42%-40% in a GOP-friendly sample, with no subsequent surveys eroding the edge. Democrats highlight Herrera's polarizing past—edgy YouTube persona and past controversial remarks—to woo moderates and Latino voters shifting left, but GOP base strength and historical midterm dynamics sustain the favorite status ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
거래량
$16,578종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Republican nominee Brandon Herrera leads trader consensus at 73% implied probability to win Texas's 23rd Congressional District House seat against Democrat Katy Padilla Stout, driven by the district's R+7 partisan lean and Solid Republican rating from Cook Political Report.** This border-spanning, majority-Hispanic battleground became fully open after incumbent Tony Gonzales resigned April 14 amid a scandal involving an extramarital affair, following his March primary setback where Herrera forced a canceled runoff. Early Public Policy Polling (March 10-11) shows Herrera ahead 42%-40% in a GOP-friendly sample, with no subsequent surveys eroding the edge. Democrats highlight Herrera's polarizing past—edgy YouTube persona and past controversial remarks—to woo moderates and Latino voters shifting left, but GOP base strength and historical midterm dynamics sustain the favorite status ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$16,578종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Republican nominee Brandon Herrera leads trader consensus at 73% implied probability to win Texas's 23rd Congressional District House seat against Democrat Katy Padilla Stout, driven by the district's R+7 partisan lean and Solid Republican rating from Cook Political Report.** This border-spanning, majority-Hispanic battleground became fully open after incumbent Tony Gonzales resigned April 14 amid a scandal involving an extramarital affair, following his March primary setback where Herrera forced a canceled runoff. Early Public Policy Polling (March 10-11) shows Herrera ahead 42%-40% in a GOP-friendly sample, with no subsequent surveys eroding the edge. Democrats highlight Herrera's polarizing past—edgy YouTube persona and past controversial remarks—to woo moderates and Latino voters shifting left, but GOP base strength and historical midterm dynamics sustain the favorite status ahead of the November 3 general election.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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