Recent downward revisions to 2026 UK GDP forecasts, driven by elevated energy prices amid Middle East tensions, underpin the market-implied odds favoring subdued growth. The IMF and OECD now project 0.8% expansion for the year, down 0.5 percentage points, reflecting higher input costs, softer business confidence, and tighter financial conditions. This aligns with the 0-1% bucket leading at 47.5% implied probability, followed closely by 1-2% at 39.6%, as Q1 2026 GDP rose 0.6% quarter-on-quarter per ONS data—accelerating from Q4 2025 but unlikely to sustain momentum. The Bank of England’s April scenarios highlight risks of wider spare capacity and persistent inflation above target, with upcoming CPI and labor releases poised to influence trader reassessments of the full-year outcome.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트<0 56%
0-1% 49%
4-5% 34.3%
2-3% 6.0%
신규
신규
2027.02.12
<0
34%
0-1%
49%
1-2%
39%
2-3%
16%
3-4%
6%
4-5%
34%
5%+
30%
<0 56%
0-1% 49%
4-5% 34.3%
2-3% 6.0%
신규
신규
2027.02.12
<0
$345 거래량
34%
0-1%
$386 거래량
49%
1-2%
$210 거래량
39%
2-3%
$247 거래량
16%
3-4%
$201 거래량
6%
4-5%
$428 거래량
34%
5%+
$252 거래량
30%
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent downward revisions to 2026 UK GDP forecasts, driven by elevated energy prices amid Middle East tensions, underpin the market-implied odds favoring subdued growth. The IMF and OECD now project 0.8% expansion for the year, down 0.5 percentage points, reflecting higher input costs, softer business confidence, and tighter financial conditions. This aligns with the 0-1% bucket leading at 47.5% implied probability, followed closely by 1-2% at 39.6%, as Q1 2026 GDP rose 0.6% quarter-on-quarter per ONS data—accelerating from Q4 2025 but unlikely to sustain momentum. The Bank of England’s April scenarios highlight risks of wider spare capacity and persistent inflation above target, with upcoming CPI and labor releases poised to influence trader reassessments of the full-year outcome.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
마켓 개설일: Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ET
거래량
$2,068종료일
2027.02.12마켓 개설일
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent downward revisions to 2026 UK GDP forecasts, driven by elevated energy prices amid Middle East tensions, underpin the market-implied odds favoring subdued growth. The IMF and OECD now project 0.8% expansion for the year, down 0.5 percentage points, reflecting higher input costs, softer business confidence, and tighter financial conditions. This aligns with the 0-1% bucket leading at 47.5% implied probability, followed closely by 1-2% at 39.6%, as Q1 2026 GDP rose 0.6% quarter-on-quarter per ONS data—accelerating from Q4 2025 but unlikely to sustain momentum. The Bank of England’s April scenarios highlight risks of wider spare capacity and persistent inflation above target, with upcoming CPI and labor releases poised to influence trader reassessments of the full-year outcome.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
거래량
$2,068종료일
2027.02.12마켓 개설일
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent downward revisions to 2026 UK GDP forecasts, driven by elevated energy prices amid Middle East tensions, underpin the market-implied odds favoring subdued growth. The IMF and OECD now project 0.8% expansion for the year, down 0.5 percentage points, reflecting higher input costs, softer business confidence, and tighter financial conditions. This aligns with the 0-1% bucket leading at 47.5% implied probability, followed closely by 1-2% at 39.6%, as Q1 2026 GDP rose 0.6% quarter-on-quarter per ONS data—accelerating from Q4 2025 but unlikely to sustain momentum. The Bank of England’s April scenarios highlight risks of wider spare capacity and persistent inflation above target, with upcoming CPI and labor releases poised to influence trader reassessments of the full-year outcome.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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