The U.S. banking system’s strong capital and liquidity positions, with average CET1 ratios above 14% and healthy profitability per Federal Reserve assessments, underpin the 69% market-implied probability of no failure by June 30. Two small-bank resolutions earlier in 2026—Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust ($261 million assets) in January and Community Bank and Trust-West Georgia ($288 million) in May—were isolated, orderly FDIC actions with no contagion signals. Loose financial conditions and resilient loan growth have contained broader stress, while the brief remaining window sharply limits scope for new failures. The June 24 stress-test release represents the main near-term catalyst but is not expected to reveal acute vulnerabilities that would shift trader consensus toward a “yes” outcome.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.06.30
신규
신규
2026.06.30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.The U.S. banking system’s strong capital and liquidity positions, with average CET1 ratios above 14% and healthy profitability per Federal Reserve assessments, underpin the 69% market-implied probability of no failure by June 30. Two small-bank resolutions earlier in 2026—Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust ($261 million assets) in January and Community Bank and Trust-West Georgia ($288 million) in May—were isolated, orderly FDIC actions with no contagion signals. Loose financial conditions and resilient loan growth have contained broader stress, while the brief remaining window sharply limits scope for new failures. The June 24 stress-test release represents the main near-term catalyst but is not expected to reveal acute vulnerabilities that would shift trader consensus toward a “yes” outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
마켓 개설일: May 26, 2026, 6:36 PM ET
거래량
$7,202종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
May 26, 2026, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.The U.S. banking system’s strong capital and liquidity positions, with average CET1 ratios above 14% and healthy profitability per Federal Reserve assessments, underpin the 69% market-implied probability of no failure by June 30. Two small-bank resolutions earlier in 2026—Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust ($261 million assets) in January and Community Bank and Trust-West Georgia ($288 million) in May—were isolated, orderly FDIC actions with no contagion signals. Loose financial conditions and resilient loan growth have contained broader stress, while the brief remaining window sharply limits scope for new failures. The June 24 stress-test release represents the main near-term catalyst but is not expected to reveal acute vulnerabilities that would shift trader consensus toward a “yes” outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
거래량
$7,202종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
May 26, 2026, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The U.S. banking system’s strong capital and liquidity positions, with average CET1 ratios above 14% and healthy profitability per Federal Reserve assessments, underpin the 69% market-implied probability of no failure by June 30. Two small-bank resolutions earlier in 2026—Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust ($261 million assets) in January and Community Bank and Trust-West Georgia ($288 million) in May—were isolated, orderly FDIC actions with no contagion signals. Loose financial conditions and resilient loan growth have contained broader stress, while the brief remaining window sharply limits scope for new failures. The June 24 stress-test release represents the main near-term catalyst but is not expected to reveal acute vulnerabilities that would shift trader consensus toward a “yes” outcome.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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