Recent U.S. tariff increases implemented in 2025 have prompted supply-chain adjustments and slower import growth relative to exports, supporting trader consensus that the 2026 goods-and-services deficit will settle in the 800–900 billion range. Monthly data through March show the gap widening modestly to 60.3 billion amid rising imports of autos, capital goods, and consumer products, yet overall annual projections from government and private forecasters point to continued narrowing from 2025 levels near 900 billion as firms adapt and the dollar depreciates. Stronger U.S. demand and service-export expansion provide partial offsets, while persistent fiscal stimulus and global trade realignments limit further compression below 800 billion. These dynamics explain the elevated probabilities assigned to the two leading brackets.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$20,984 거래량
$20,984 거래량
2027.02.28
<5,000억 달러
7%
5,000억~6,000억
6%
6,000억~7,000억
5%
7,000억~8,000억
10%
8,000억~9,000억
44%
9,000억~1조
36%
1조–1.1조
9%
1.1조+
5%
$20,984 거래량
$20,984 거래량
2027.02.28
<5,000억 달러
$16,636 거래량
7%
5,000억~6,000억
$413 거래량
6%
6,000억~7,000억
$435 거래량
5%
7,000억~8,000억
$455 거래량
10%
8,000억~9,000억
$1,008 거래량
44%
9,000억~1조
$971 거래량
36%
1조–1.1조
$441 거래량
9%
1.1조+
$624 거래량
5%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent U.S. tariff increases implemented in 2025 have prompted supply-chain adjustments and slower import growth relative to exports, supporting trader consensus that the 2026 goods-and-services deficit will settle in the 800–900 billion range. Monthly data through March show the gap widening modestly to 60.3 billion amid rising imports of autos, capital goods, and consumer products, yet overall annual projections from government and private forecasters point to continued narrowing from 2025 levels near 900 billion as firms adapt and the dollar depreciates. Stronger U.S. demand and service-export expansion provide partial offsets, while persistent fiscal stimulus and global trade realignments limit further compression below 800 billion. These dynamics explain the elevated probabilities assigned to the two leading brackets.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
마켓 개설일: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
거래량
$20,984종료일
2027.02.28마켓 개설일
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent U.S. tariff increases implemented in 2025 have prompted supply-chain adjustments and slower import growth relative to exports, supporting trader consensus that the 2026 goods-and-services deficit will settle in the 800–900 billion range. Monthly data through March show the gap widening modestly to 60.3 billion amid rising imports of autos, capital goods, and consumer products, yet overall annual projections from government and private forecasters point to continued narrowing from 2025 levels near 900 billion as firms adapt and the dollar depreciates. Stronger U.S. demand and service-export expansion provide partial offsets, while persistent fiscal stimulus and global trade realignments limit further compression below 800 billion. These dynamics explain the elevated probabilities assigned to the two leading brackets.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
거래량
$20,984종료일
2027.02.28마켓 개설일
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. tariff increases implemented in 2025 have prompted supply-chain adjustments and slower import growth relative to exports, supporting trader consensus that the 2026 goods-and-services deficit will settle in the 800–900 billion range. Monthly data through March show the gap widening modestly to 60.3 billion amid rising imports of autos, capital goods, and consumer products, yet overall annual projections from government and private forecasters point to continued narrowing from 2025 levels near 900 billion as firms adapt and the dollar depreciates. Stronger U.S. demand and service-export expansion provide partial offsets, while persistent fiscal stimulus and global trade realignments limit further compression below 800 billion. These dynamics explain the elevated probabilities assigned to the two leading brackets.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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