Recent energy price spikes tied to geopolitical tensions have driven the April CPI to 3.8 percent year-over-year, its highest level since May 2023, while the unemployment rate has held steady at 4.3 percent. These readings underpin the market-implied 41 percent probability assigned to an overheating outcome at year-end, where unemployment remains below 5 percent alongside inflation at or above 3.5 percent. Trader consensus appears to reflect the view that supply-driven inflation pressures may prove somewhat persistent even as the labor market normalizes gradually toward 4.5–4.6 percent. Forward-looking projections from the Federal Reserve and private forecasters anticipate modest GDP growth near 2.2 percent for 2026 with limited scope for rapid disinflation, elevating the relative odds of the overheating scenario over a classic soft landing.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) 32%
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) 31%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) 22%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) 14.0%
신규
신규
2027.01.31
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
26%
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
49%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
19%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
21%
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) 32%
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) 31%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) 22%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) 14.0%
신규
신규
2027.01.31
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
$1,681 거래량
26%
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
$434 거래량
49%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
$580 거래량
19%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
$700 거래량
21%
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.Recent energy price spikes tied to geopolitical tensions have driven the April CPI to 3.8 percent year-over-year, its highest level since May 2023, while the unemployment rate has held steady at 4.3 percent. These readings underpin the market-implied 41 percent probability assigned to an overheating outcome at year-end, where unemployment remains below 5 percent alongside inflation at or above 3.5 percent. Trader consensus appears to reflect the view that supply-driven inflation pressures may prove somewhat persistent even as the labor market normalizes gradually toward 4.5–4.6 percent. Forward-looking projections from the Federal Reserve and private forecasters anticipate modest GDP growth near 2.2 percent for 2026 with limited scope for rapid disinflation, elevating the relative odds of the overheating scenario over a classic soft landing.
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
마켓 개설일: Apr 24, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
거래량
$3,395종료일
2027.01.31마켓 개설일
Apr 24, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.Recent energy price spikes tied to geopolitical tensions have driven the April CPI to 3.8 percent year-over-year, its highest level since May 2023, while the unemployment rate has held steady at 4.3 percent. These readings underpin the market-implied 41 percent probability assigned to an overheating outcome at year-end, where unemployment remains below 5 percent alongside inflation at or above 3.5 percent. Trader consensus appears to reflect the view that supply-driven inflation pressures may prove somewhat persistent even as the labor market normalizes gradually toward 4.5–4.6 percent. Forward-looking projections from the Federal Reserve and private forecasters anticipate modest GDP growth near 2.2 percent for 2026 with limited scope for rapid disinflation, elevating the relative odds of the overheating scenario over a classic soft landing.
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
거래량
$3,395종료일
2027.01.31마켓 개설일
Apr 24, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent energy price spikes tied to geopolitical tensions have driven the April CPI to 3.8 percent year-over-year, its highest level since May 2023, while the unemployment rate has held steady at 4.3 percent. These readings underpin the market-implied 41 percent probability assigned to an overheating outcome at year-end, where unemployment remains below 5 percent alongside inflation at or above 3.5 percent. Trader consensus appears to reflect the view that supply-driven inflation pressures may prove somewhat persistent even as the labor market normalizes gradually toward 4.5–4.6 percent. Forward-looking projections from the Federal Reserve and private forecasters anticipate modest GDP growth near 2.2 percent for 2026 with limited scope for rapid disinflation, elevating the relative odds of the overheating scenario over a classic soft landing.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문