Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 93.5% implied probability to win Virginia's 3rd Congressional District House seat, driven by its D+18 partisan voting index and incumbent Rep. Bobby Scott's strong reelection bid after securing 70% in 2024. No Republican candidates have declared ahead of the May 26 filing deadline, reinforcing the district's safe Democratic status amid a competitive primary featuring Scott and challenger Justin Maffett. The Virginia Supreme Court's May 8 ruling striking down a voter-approved mid-decade redistricting plan preserved current boundaries, avoiding any shifts that could have altered VA-03's makeup. Odds could shift with Scott's potential retirement at age 79, a high-profile GOP recruit leveraging national midterm dynamics, or an unforeseen scandal, though historical base rates for D+18 seats favor retention. Primaries are scheduled for August 4 ahead of the November 3 general election.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$35,417 거래량
$35,417 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
94%
공화당
7%
$35,417 거래량
$35,417 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
$20,073 거래량
94%
공화당
$15,345 거래량
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 93.5% implied probability to win Virginia's 3rd Congressional District House seat, driven by its D+18 partisan voting index and incumbent Rep. Bobby Scott's strong reelection bid after securing 70% in 2024. No Republican candidates have declared ahead of the May 26 filing deadline, reinforcing the district's safe Democratic status amid a competitive primary featuring Scott and challenger Justin Maffett. The Virginia Supreme Court's May 8 ruling striking down a voter-approved mid-decade redistricting plan preserved current boundaries, avoiding any shifts that could have altered VA-03's makeup. Odds could shift with Scott's potential retirement at age 79, a high-profile GOP recruit leveraging national midterm dynamics, or an unforeseen scandal, though historical base rates for D+18 seats favor retention. Primaries are scheduled for August 4 ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
거래량
$35,417종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 93.5% implied probability to win Virginia's 3rd Congressional District House seat, driven by its D+18 partisan voting index and incumbent Rep. Bobby Scott's strong reelection bid after securing 70% in 2024. No Republican candidates have declared ahead of the May 26 filing deadline, reinforcing the district's safe Democratic status amid a competitive primary featuring Scott and challenger Justin Maffett. The Virginia Supreme Court's May 8 ruling striking down a voter-approved mid-decade redistricting plan preserved current boundaries, avoiding any shifts that could have altered VA-03's makeup. Odds could shift with Scott's potential retirement at age 79, a high-profile GOP recruit leveraging national midterm dynamics, or an unforeseen scandal, though historical base rates for D+18 seats favor retention. Primaries are scheduled for August 4 ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$35,417종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 93.5% implied probability to win Virginia's 3rd Congressional District House seat, driven by its D+18 partisan voting index and incumbent Rep. Bobby Scott's strong reelection bid after securing 70% in 2024. No Republican candidates have declared ahead of the May 26 filing deadline, reinforcing the district's safe Democratic status amid a competitive primary featuring Scott and challenger Justin Maffett. The Virginia Supreme Court's May 8 ruling striking down a voter-approved mid-decade redistricting plan preserved current boundaries, avoiding any shifts that could have altered VA-03's makeup. Odds could shift with Scott's potential retirement at age 79, a high-profile GOP recruit leveraging national midterm dynamics, or an unforeseen scandal, though historical base rates for D+18 seats favor retention. Primaries are scheduled for August 4 ahead of the November 3 general election.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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