France’s minority government under Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu faces persistent challenges securing a national budget amid a fragmented National Assembly, where no single bloc holds a majority. Recent months of negotiations have required repeated concessions to centrist and Socialist lawmakers, alongside invocations of Article 49.3 to advance spending measures without full votes, narrowly avoiding censure motions from both the left and far right. This dynamic has created competitive balance in trader assessments, as historical patterns show budgets passing only after last-minute compromises or procedural maneuvers. Further developments such as successful cross-party deals on deficit targets, renewed no-confidence threats, or shifts in parliamentary alliances could quickly alter the implied odds before the December 31 deadline.