Iranian officials revived threats to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty following U.S. and Israeli strikes on nuclear facilities in 2025, prompting parliamentary review of exit legislation in late March 2026. Despite these statements, Tehran has maintained IAEA safeguards at unaffected sites, submitted working papers to the ongoing 2026 NPT Review Conference in New York, and pursued diplomatic channels without issuing formal Article X notification. This pattern aligns with repeated rhetorical escalations since 2004 that have not produced actual withdrawal. Traders assign a 91.6 percent implied probability to no exit before 2027 because formal departure would heighten isolation and remove treaty-based legal standing for enrichment activities. Late-breaking escalations in regional tensions or collapse of current diplomatic proposals remain the primary factors that could still shift these odds.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$121,662 거래량
$121,662 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$121,662 거래량
$121,662 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Iranian officials revived threats to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty following U.S. and Israeli strikes on nuclear facilities in 2025, prompting parliamentary review of exit legislation in late March 2026. Despite these statements, Tehran has maintained IAEA safeguards at unaffected sites, submitted working papers to the ongoing 2026 NPT Review Conference in New York, and pursued diplomatic channels without issuing formal Article X notification. This pattern aligns with repeated rhetorical escalations since 2004 that have not produced actual withdrawal. Traders assign a 91.6 percent implied probability to no exit before 2027 because formal departure would heighten isolation and remove treaty-based legal standing for enrichment activities. Late-breaking escalations in regional tensions or collapse of current diplomatic proposals remain the primary factors that could still shift these odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ET
거래량
$121,662종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Iranian officials revived threats to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty following U.S. and Israeli strikes on nuclear facilities in 2025, prompting parliamentary review of exit legislation in late March 2026. Despite these statements, Tehran has maintained IAEA safeguards at unaffected sites, submitted working papers to the ongoing 2026 NPT Review Conference in New York, and pursued diplomatic channels without issuing formal Article X notification. This pattern aligns with repeated rhetorical escalations since 2004 that have not produced actual withdrawal. Traders assign a 91.6 percent implied probability to no exit before 2027 because formal departure would heighten isolation and remove treaty-based legal standing for enrichment activities. Late-breaking escalations in regional tensions or collapse of current diplomatic proposals remain the primary factors that could still shift these odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$121,662종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iranian officials revived threats to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty following U.S. and Israeli strikes on nuclear facilities in 2025, prompting parliamentary review of exit legislation in late March 2026. Despite these statements, Tehran has maintained IAEA safeguards at unaffected sites, submitted working papers to the ongoing 2026 NPT Review Conference in New York, and pursued diplomatic channels without issuing formal Article X notification. This pattern aligns with repeated rhetorical escalations since 2004 that have not produced actual withdrawal. Traders assign a 91.6 percent implied probability to no exit before 2027 because formal departure would heighten isolation and remove treaty-based legal standing for enrichment activities. Late-breaking escalations in regional tensions or collapse of current diplomatic proposals remain the primary factors that could still shift these odds.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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