US intelligence assessments place Iran's timeline to produce weapons-grade uranium and assemble a nuclear device at 9-12 months, unchanged by recent US-Israeli airstrikes—including May 7 targets on weaponization sites, Organization of Defense Innovation and Research facilities, and nuclear scientists—keeping it beyond the 2026 horizon and bolstering 91% "No" odds. A fragile April 7 ceasefire holds amid stalled negotiations via Pakistan, where Iran delays responding to a US proposal on its highly enriched uranium stockpile and enrichment limits, facing internal hardliner resistance. While Energy Secretary Chris Wright warned May 13 of weeks to weapons-grade material from existing 60% stocks, IAEA unverified stockpiles and threats of renewed strikes reinforce trader consensus that diplomacy and military pressure will avert a bomb before 2027 absent a major escalation.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$598,835 거래량
$598,835 거래량
예
$598,835 거래량
$598,835 거래량
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
마켓 개설일: Nov 13, 2025, 5:50 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolver
0x65070BE91...US intelligence assessments place Iran's timeline to produce weapons-grade uranium and assemble a nuclear device at 9-12 months, unchanged by recent US-Israeli airstrikes—including May 7 targets on weaponization sites, Organization of Defense Innovation and Research facilities, and nuclear scientists—keeping it beyond the 2026 horizon and bolstering 91% "No" odds. A fragile April 7 ceasefire holds amid stalled negotiations via Pakistan, where Iran delays responding to a US proposal on its highly enriched uranium stockpile and enrichment limits, facing internal hardliner resistance. While Energy Secretary Chris Wright warned May 13 of weeks to weapons-grade material from existing 60% stocks, IAEA unverified stockpiles and threats of renewed strikes reinforce trader consensus that diplomacy and military pressure will avert a bomb before 2027 absent a major escalation.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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