Trader consensus prices "No" at 93% on Iran withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) before 2027, reflecting skepticism toward Tehran's repeated rhetorical threats amid escalating military tensions. Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites and facilities—prompting a fresh threat five days ago—have revived parliamentary discussions on exit, as seen in March actions post-attacks, yet Iran submitted working papers to the 2026 NPT Review Conference and plans participation, signaling continued adherence. IAEA safeguards reports confirm ongoing compliance obligations, while historical patterns since 2004 show threats without action, deterred by isolation risks, sanctions, and diplomatic pressures; late-breaking escalations or regime shifts could alter odds before the January 1, 2027 resolution.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$119,499 거래량
$119,499 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$119,499 거래량
$119,499 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus prices "No" at 93% on Iran withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) before 2027, reflecting skepticism toward Tehran's repeated rhetorical threats amid escalating military tensions. Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites and facilities—prompting a fresh threat five days ago—have revived parliamentary discussions on exit, as seen in March actions post-attacks, yet Iran submitted working papers to the 2026 NPT Review Conference and plans participation, signaling continued adherence. IAEA safeguards reports confirm ongoing compliance obligations, while historical patterns since 2004 show threats without action, deterred by isolation risks, sanctions, and diplomatic pressures; late-breaking escalations or regime shifts could alter odds before the January 1, 2027 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ET
거래량
$119,499종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus prices "No" at 93% on Iran withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) before 2027, reflecting skepticism toward Tehran's repeated rhetorical threats amid escalating military tensions. Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites and facilities—prompting a fresh threat five days ago—have revived parliamentary discussions on exit, as seen in March actions post-attacks, yet Iran submitted working papers to the 2026 NPT Review Conference and plans participation, signaling continued adherence. IAEA safeguards reports confirm ongoing compliance obligations, while historical patterns since 2004 show threats without action, deterred by isolation risks, sanctions, and diplomatic pressures; late-breaking escalations or regime shifts could alter odds before the January 1, 2027 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$119,499종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 93% on Iran withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) before 2027, reflecting skepticism toward Tehran's repeated rhetorical threats amid escalating military tensions. Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites and facilities—prompting a fresh threat five days ago—have revived parliamentary discussions on exit, as seen in March actions post-attacks, yet Iran submitted working papers to the 2026 NPT Review Conference and plans participation, signaling continued adherence. IAEA safeguards reports confirm ongoing compliance obligations, while historical patterns since 2004 show threats without action, deterred by isolation risks, sanctions, and diplomatic pressures; late-breaking escalations or regime shifts could alter odds before the January 1, 2027 resolution.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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