President Trump's January 2026 statements explicitly ruling out military force to acquire Greenland shifted focus from annexation threats to diplomatic negotiations for expanded U.S. military access. Ongoing talks with Denmark have advanced frameworks for three new bases in southern Greenland, building on existing facilities like Pituffik Space Base, as confirmed in April congressional testimony. No Pentagon mobilization or operational invasion orders have materialized, while congressional opposition, NATO alliance risks, and Greenlandic public resistance further constrain options. Traders assign a 93.5% implied probability to no invasion by year's end, reflecting the pivot to cooperative Arctic defense arrangements over coercive measures.