The Bank of Canada’s decision to hold its overnight rate steady at 2.25% through the first half of 2026, including the June 10 meeting, underpins the 57% market-implied probability of no rate hike this year. Persistent weakness in Canadian growth—marked by soft Q1 GDP and excess supply—combined with a labor market showing limited wage pressures, has outweighed the temporary inflation bump to 2.8% in April driven by Middle East energy prices. Core measures have eased toward 2.1%, supporting the BoC’s stance of looking through the shock while remaining data-dependent. Trader consensus reflects economist polls favoring an extended hold, with limited pass-through to broader prices and ongoing US trade uncertainty reinforcing caution. Key near-term catalysts include the July 15 announcement, subsequent CPI releases, and any escalation in energy costs that could shift the inflation trajectory.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoBank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?
Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?
$12,693 Wol.
$12,693 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
$12,693 Wol.
$12,693 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bank of Canada's target for the overnight rate is increased at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bank of Canada (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The Bank of Canada’s decision to hold its overnight rate steady at 2.25% through the first half of 2026, including the June 10 meeting, underpins the 57% market-implied probability of no rate hike this year. Persistent weakness in Canadian growth—marked by soft Q1 GDP and excess supply—combined with a labor market showing limited wage pressures, has outweighed the temporary inflation bump to 2.8% in April driven by Middle East energy prices. Core measures have eased toward 2.1%, supporting the BoC’s stance of looking through the shock while remaining data-dependent. Trader consensus reflects economist polls favoring an extended hold, with limited pass-through to broader prices and ongoing US trade uncertainty reinforcing caution. Key near-term catalysts include the July 15 announcement, subsequent CPI releases, and any escalation in energy costs that could shift the inflation trajectory.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bank of Canada's target for the overnight rate is increased at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bank of Canada (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bank of Canada (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Mar 11, 2026, 5:51 PM ET
Wolumen
$12,693Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 11, 2026, 5:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bank of Canada's target for the overnight rate is increased at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bank of Canada (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The Bank of Canada’s decision to hold its overnight rate steady at 2.25% through the first half of 2026, including the June 10 meeting, underpins the 57% market-implied probability of no rate hike this year. Persistent weakness in Canadian growth—marked by soft Q1 GDP and excess supply—combined with a labor market showing limited wage pressures, has outweighed the temporary inflation bump to 2.8% in April driven by Middle East energy prices. Core measures have eased toward 2.1%, supporting the BoC’s stance of looking through the shock while remaining data-dependent. Trader consensus reflects economist polls favoring an extended hold, with limited pass-through to broader prices and ongoing US trade uncertainty reinforcing caution. Key near-term catalysts include the July 15 announcement, subsequent CPI releases, and any escalation in energy costs that could shift the inflation trajectory.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bank of Canada's target for the overnight rate is increased at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bank of Canada (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bank of Canada (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$12,693Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 11, 2026, 5:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Bank of Canada’s decision to hold its overnight rate steady at 2.25% through the first half of 2026, including the June 10 meeting, underpins the 57% market-implied probability of no rate hike this year. Persistent weakness in Canadian growth—marked by soft Q1 GDP and excess supply—combined with a labor market showing limited wage pressures, has outweighed the temporary inflation bump to 2.8% in April driven by Middle East energy prices. Core measures have eased toward 2.1%, supporting the BoC’s stance of looking through the shock while remaining data-dependent. Trader consensus reflects economist polls favoring an extended hold, with limited pass-through to broader prices and ongoing US trade uncertainty reinforcing caution. Key near-term catalysts include the July 15 announcement, subsequent CPI releases, and any escalation in energy costs that could shift the inflation trajectory.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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