Lula maintains a commanding position in Piauí for the presidential runoff, reflecting the state's consistent support for the incumbent in Northeast Brazil. Recent surveys from Datafolha and AtlasIntel, conducted in September 2026 ahead of the October 4 first round, showed Lula with 59-68% of first-round intentions and 67-70% in head-to-head matchups against Flávio Bolsonaro, driven by strong government approval ratings near 67% and established voter patterns favoring PT candidates. These results align with historical turnout dynamics and regional economic priorities that have favored Lula-aligned platforms. A late shift would require substantial changes in voter mobilization or unexpected national developments within the runoff window to narrow the gap.