Brazil’s Senate has never removed an STF justice through impeachment despite repeated petitions, including multiple recent filings against Alexandre de Moraes. A December 2025 ruling by Justice Gilmar Mendes limited initiation of such proceedings primarily to the Attorney General’s office while restricting the 1950 statute, creating significant procedural barriers ahead of any Senate vote. Removal requires a two-thirds majority, and the current congressional alignment has led Senate leadership to decline advancing complaints. Traders reflect this history and institutional safeguards in the 96.6% implied probability for no removal by the end of 2026. A post-election shift in Senate composition or a major verified scandal advancing through formal channels could still alter the outcome within the tight timeline.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano3% szansa
$83,546 Wol.
$83,546 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
3% szansa
$83,546 Wol.
$83,546 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Brazil’s Senate has never removed an STF justice through impeachment despite repeated petitions, including multiple recent filings against Alexandre de Moraes. A December 2025 ruling by Justice Gilmar Mendes limited initiation of such proceedings primarily to the Attorney General’s office while restricting the 1950 statute, creating significant procedural barriers ahead of any Senate vote. Removal requires a two-thirds majority, and the current congressional alignment has led Senate leadership to decline advancing complaints. Traders reflect this history and institutional safeguards in the 96.6% implied probability for no removal by the end of 2026. A post-election shift in Senate composition or a major verified scandal advancing through formal channels could still alter the outcome within the tight timeline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ET
Wolumen
$83,546Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Brazil’s Senate has never removed an STF justice through impeachment despite repeated petitions, including multiple recent filings against Alexandre de Moraes. A December 2025 ruling by Justice Gilmar Mendes limited initiation of such proceedings primarily to the Attorney General’s office while restricting the 1950 statute, creating significant procedural barriers ahead of any Senate vote. Removal requires a two-thirds majority, and the current congressional alignment has led Senate leadership to decline advancing complaints. Traders reflect this history and institutional safeguards in the 96.6% implied probability for no removal by the end of 2026. A post-election shift in Senate composition or a major verified scandal advancing through formal channels could still alter the outcome within the tight timeline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$83,546Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Brazil’s Senate has never removed an STF justice through impeachment despite repeated petitions, including multiple recent filings against Alexandre de Moraes. A December 2025 ruling by Justice Gilmar Mendes limited initiation of such proceedings primarily to the Attorney General’s office while restricting the 1950 statute, creating significant procedural barriers ahead of any Senate vote. Removal requires a two-thirds majority, and the current congressional alignment has led Senate leadership to decline advancing complaints. Traders reflect this history and institutional safeguards in the 96.6% implied probability for no removal by the end of 2026. A post-election shift in Senate composition or a major verified scandal advancing through formal channels could still alter the outcome within the tight timeline.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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