The surge in Eurozone energy prices triggered by the Middle East conflict has emerged as the dominant driver behind Polymarket's elevated odds for 2026 headline inflation, with the 3.1%+ outcome commanding a 61.8% market-implied probability. April 2026 HICP data printed at 3.0%, up sharply from 2.6% in March and the highest reading since September 2023, while the ECB's May Survey of Professional Forecasters revised its 2026 forecast upward to 2.7% from 1.8% previously amid upside risks to inflation. Traders are pricing in the potential for second-round effects through wages and food costs despite cooling core inflation at 2.2% and subdued GDP growth near 1.0%, with upcoming ECB policy decisions and further energy-price data likely to shape whether these probabilities shift materially before year-end resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoEurozone Annual Inflation 2026
Eurozone Annual Inflation 2026
3.1%+ 61.5%
2.8-3.0% 17.7%
1.9–2.1% 17.4%
<1.0% 12.8%
$12,918 Wol.
$12,918 Wol.
Jan 19, 2027
<1.0%
16%
1.0–1.2%
4%
1.3–1.5%
1%
1.6–1.8%
16%
1.9–2.1%
17%
2.2–2.4%
12%
2.5–2.7%
12%
2.8-3.0%
18%
3.1%+
62%
3.1%+ 61.5%
2.8-3.0% 17.7%
1.9–2.1% 17.4%
<1.0% 12.8%
$12,918 Wol.
$12,918 Wol.
Jan 19, 2027
<1.0%
$1,069 Wol.
16%
1.0–1.2%
$769 Wol.
4%
1.3–1.5%
$2,022 Wol.
1%
1.6–1.8%
$1,185 Wol.
16%
1.9–2.1%
$2,881 Wol.
17%
2.2–2.4%
$1,021 Wol.
12%
2.5–2.7%
$1,139 Wol.
12%
2.8-3.0%
$635 Wol.
18%
3.1%+
$2,196 Wol.
62%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the Eurozone over the 12-month period ending December 2026 as reported by Eurostat.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly Eurostat report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Eurostat Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 19, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report on the Eurostat website (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/) by selecting the "Database" option from the "Data" dropdown, opening the "Data navigation tree" folder, then the "Economy and finance" folder, then the "Prices (prc)" folder, then the "Harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) (prc_hicp)" folder, and opening the file named "HICP - monthly data (annual rate of change) (prc_hicp_manr)". The relevant figure can be found in the column for the relevant month in the row marked "Euro area - 20 countries (from 2023)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Eurostat HICP news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/release-calendar or https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/statscal/ges/html/sthicp.en.htmlThe surge in Eurozone energy prices triggered by the Middle East conflict has emerged as the dominant driver behind Polymarket's elevated odds for 2026 headline inflation, with the 3.1%+ outcome commanding a 61.8% market-implied probability. April 2026 HICP data printed at 3.0%, up sharply from 2.6% in March and the highest reading since September 2023, while the ECB's May Survey of Professional Forecasters revised its 2026 forecast upward to 2.7% from 1.8% previously amid upside risks to inflation. Traders are pricing in the potential for second-round effects through wages and food costs despite cooling core inflation at 2.2% and subdued GDP growth near 1.0%, with upcoming ECB policy decisions and further energy-price data likely to shape whether these probabilities shift materially before year-end resolution.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the Eurozone over the 12-month period ending December 2026 as reported by Eurostat.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly Eurostat report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Eurostat Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 19, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report on the Eurostat website (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/) by selecting the "Database" option from the "Data" dropdown, opening the "Data navigation tree" folder, then the "Economy and finance" folder, then the "Prices (prc)" folder, then the "Harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) (prc_hicp)" folder, and opening the file named "HICP - monthly data (annual rate of change) (prc_hicp_manr)". The relevant figure can be found in the column for the relevant month in the row marked "Euro area - 20 countries (from 2023)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Eurostat HICP news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/release-calendar or https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/statscal/ges/html/sthicp.en.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly Eurostat report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Eurostat Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 19, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report on the Eurostat website (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/) by selecting the "Database" option from the "Data" dropdown, opening the "Data navigation tree" folder, then the "Economy and finance" folder, then the "Prices (prc)" folder, then the "Harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) (prc_hicp)" folder, and opening the file named "HICP - monthly data (annual rate of change) (prc_hicp_manr)". The relevant figure can be found in the column for the relevant month in the row marked "Euro area - 20 countries (from 2023)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Eurostat HICP news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/release-calendar or https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/statscal/ges/html/sthicp.en.html
Rynek otwarty: Jan 21, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Wolumen
$12,918Data zakończenia
Jan 19, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jan 21, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the Eurozone over the 12-month period ending December 2026 as reported by Eurostat.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly Eurostat report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Eurostat Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 19, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report on the Eurostat website (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/) by selecting the "Database" option from the "Data" dropdown, opening the "Data navigation tree" folder, then the "Economy and finance" folder, then the "Prices (prc)" folder, then the "Harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) (prc_hicp)" folder, and opening the file named "HICP - monthly data (annual rate of change) (prc_hicp_manr)". The relevant figure can be found in the column for the relevant month in the row marked "Euro area - 20 countries (from 2023)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Eurostat HICP news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/release-calendar or https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/statscal/ges/html/sthicp.en.htmlThe surge in Eurozone energy prices triggered by the Middle East conflict has emerged as the dominant driver behind Polymarket's elevated odds for 2026 headline inflation, with the 3.1%+ outcome commanding a 61.8% market-implied probability. April 2026 HICP data printed at 3.0%, up sharply from 2.6% in March and the highest reading since September 2023, while the ECB's May Survey of Professional Forecasters revised its 2026 forecast upward to 2.7% from 1.8% previously amid upside risks to inflation. Traders are pricing in the potential for second-round effects through wages and food costs despite cooling core inflation at 2.2% and subdued GDP growth near 1.0%, with upcoming ECB policy decisions and further energy-price data likely to shape whether these probabilities shift materially before year-end resolution.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the Eurozone over the 12-month period ending December 2026 as reported by Eurostat.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly Eurostat report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Eurostat Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 19, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report on the Eurostat website (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/) by selecting the "Database" option from the "Data" dropdown, opening the "Data navigation tree" folder, then the "Economy and finance" folder, then the "Prices (prc)" folder, then the "Harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) (prc_hicp)" folder, and opening the file named "HICP - monthly data (annual rate of change) (prc_hicp_manr)". The relevant figure can be found in the column for the relevant month in the row marked "Euro area - 20 countries (from 2023)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Eurostat HICP news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/release-calendar or https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/statscal/ges/html/sthicp.en.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly Eurostat report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Eurostat Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 19, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report on the Eurostat website (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/) by selecting the "Database" option from the "Data" dropdown, opening the "Data navigation tree" folder, then the "Economy and finance" folder, then the "Prices (prc)" folder, then the "Harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) (prc_hicp)" folder, and opening the file named "HICP - monthly data (annual rate of change) (prc_hicp_manr)". The relevant figure can be found in the column for the relevant month in the row marked "Euro area - 20 countries (from 2023)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Eurostat HICP news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/release-calendar or https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/statscal/ges/html/sthicp.en.html
Wolumen
$12,918Data zakończenia
Jan 19, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jan 21, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The surge in Eurozone energy prices triggered by the Middle East conflict has emerged as the dominant driver behind Polymarket's elevated odds for 2026 headline inflation, with the 3.1%+ outcome commanding a 61.8% market-implied probability. April 2026 HICP data printed at 3.0%, up sharply from 2.6% in March and the highest reading since September 2023, while the ECB's May Survey of Professional Forecasters revised its 2026 forecast upward to 2.7% from 1.8% previously amid upside risks to inflation. Traders are pricing in the potential for second-round effects through wages and food costs despite cooling core inflation at 2.2% and subdued GDP growth near 1.0%, with upcoming ECB policy decisions and further energy-price data likely to shape whether these probabilities shift materially before year-end resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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