Persistent inflation near 3.4% year-over-year, combined with geopolitical supply shocks from Middle East tensions elevating energy costs, has kept the federal funds rate target at 3.50–3.75% after the July 29 FOMC decision. Traders assign 59% implied probability to Pause–Pause–Pause across the September 15–16 and October 27–28 meetings, reflecting the Fed’s 9–3 July vote, three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike, and recent labor data showing only modest softening. Market-implied odds price a September hike at roughly 38%, underscoring uncertainty ahead of incoming CPI and employment releases that could shift the balance between holding steady and tightening further before year-end.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoFed decisions (Jul–Oct)
Fed decisions (Jul–Oct)
Pause–Pause–Pause 59%
Other 39%
Pause–Pause–Cut 3.1%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$709,909 Wol.
$709,909 Wol.
Oct 28, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
59%
Pause–Pause–Cut
3%
Pause–Cut–Pause
<1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
<1%
Other
39%
Pause–Pause–Pause 59%
Other 39%
Pause–Pause–Cut 3.1%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$709,909 Wol.
$709,909 Wol.
Oct 28, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$234,860 Wol.
59%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$58,425 Wol.
3%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$35,275 Wol.
<1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$27,060 Wol.
<1%
Other
$310,801 Wol.
39%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation near 3.4% year-over-year, combined with geopolitical supply shocks from Middle East tensions elevating energy costs, has kept the federal funds rate target at 3.50–3.75% after the July 29 FOMC decision. Traders assign 59% implied probability to Pause–Pause–Pause across the September 15–16 and October 27–28 meetings, reflecting the Fed’s 9–3 July vote, three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike, and recent labor data showing only modest softening. Market-implied odds price a September hike at roughly 38%, underscoring uncertainty ahead of incoming CPI and employment releases that could shift the balance between holding steady and tightening further before year-end.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Rynek otwarty: Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ET
Wolumen
$709,909Data zakończenia
Oct 28, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation near 3.4% year-over-year, combined with geopolitical supply shocks from Middle East tensions elevating energy costs, has kept the federal funds rate target at 3.50–3.75% after the July 29 FOMC decision. Traders assign 59% implied probability to Pause–Pause–Pause across the September 15–16 and October 27–28 meetings, reflecting the Fed’s 9–3 July vote, three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike, and recent labor data showing only modest softening. Market-implied odds price a September hike at roughly 38%, underscoring uncertainty ahead of incoming CPI and employment releases that could shift the balance between holding steady and tightening further before year-end.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Wolumen
$709,909Data zakończenia
Oct 28, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent inflation near 3.4% year-over-year, combined with geopolitical supply shocks from Middle East tensions elevating energy costs, has kept the federal funds rate target at 3.50–3.75% after the July 29 FOMC decision. Traders assign 59% implied probability to Pause–Pause–Pause across the September 15–16 and October 27–28 meetings, reflecting the Fed’s 9–3 July vote, three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike, and recent labor data showing only modest softening. Market-implied odds price a September hike at roughly 38%, underscoring uncertainty ahead of incoming CPI and employment releases that could shift the balance between holding steady and tightening further before year-end.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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