Incumbent Mario Díaz-Balart holds an 83.5% implied probability in the FL-26 House race due to the district’s Republican lean, his long tenure, and structural advantages heading into the November 3, 2026 general election. Redistricting shifted boundaries by removing Collier County and adding portions of southwest Broward, moderating the seat’s partisan index from prior Trump margins above 30 points to roughly R+18, yet forecasters rate it Solid or Safe Republican. Díaz-Balart has raised over $2.8 million compared with Nicole Locklin’s roughly $600,000, providing a decisive edge in a low-visibility contest with no public polls. Both candidates ran unopposed in their primaries, and no major late developments have altered the race’s fundamentals in the final week.