Traders assign low single-digit to mid-teen probabilities across listed parties for the 6 December 2026 National People's Assembly vote because Guinea-Bissau’s political field remains highly fragmented after the November 2025 coup annulled prior results and installed a military-led transitional authority. The August 2026 constitutional referendum, which passed officially with roughly 70 percent support but faced opposition boycotts and reports of low turnout, reduced assembly seats from 102 to 65 and strengthened presidential powers, further complicating coalition-building among historical actors such as PAIGC and PRS-linked groups alongside smaller formations like FREPASNA and Platforma Republicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné.” Upcoming candidate registration deadlines and any clarification on participation by major opposition currents could shift implied probabilities by clarifying viable alliances or exclusion risks in the proportional system.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoGuinea-Bissau National People's Assembly Election Winner
Guinea-Bissau National People's Assembly Election Winner
FREPASNA 22.6%
Platforma Reupblicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” 12.4%
PT 6.5%
FLING 4.3%
$159,271 Wol.
$159,271 Wol.
Nov 22, 2025
FREPASNA
15%
Platforma Reupblicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné”
12%
PT
6%
FLING
4%
PS
3%
MUNDO-GB
3%
FREPASNA 22.6%
Platforma Reupblicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” 12.4%
PT 6.5%
FLING 4.3%
$159,271 Wol.
$159,271 Wol.
Nov 22, 2025
FREPASNA
$26,748 Wol.
15%
Platforma Reupblicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné”
$48,580 Wol.
12%
PT
$21,911 Wol.
6%
FLING
$12,987 Wol.
4%
PS
$26,160 Wol.
3%
MUNDO-GB
$22,884 Wol.
3%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau.
If voting in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau election does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will be resolved in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation or name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the National People's Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).Traders assign low single-digit to mid-teen probabilities across listed parties for the 6 December 2026 National People's Assembly vote because Guinea-Bissau’s political field remains highly fragmented after the November 2025 coup annulled prior results and installed a military-led transitional authority. The August 2026 constitutional referendum, which passed officially with roughly 70 percent support but faced opposition boycotts and reports of low turnout, reduced assembly seats from 102 to 65 and strengthened presidential powers, further complicating coalition-building among historical actors such as PAIGC and PRS-linked groups alongside smaller formations like FREPASNA and Platforma Republicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné.” Upcoming candidate registration deadlines and any clarification on participation by major opposition currents could shift implied probabilities by clarifying viable alliances or exclusion risks in the proportional system.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau.
If voting in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau election does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will be resolved in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation or name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the National People's Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau.
If voting in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau election does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will be resolved in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation or name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the National People's Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
Rynek otwarty: Nov 7, 2025, 11:46 AM ET
Wolumen
$159,271Data zakończenia
Nov 23, 2025Rynek otwarty
Nov 7, 2025, 11:46 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau.
If voting in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau election does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will be resolved in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation or name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the National People's Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).Traders assign low single-digit to mid-teen probabilities across listed parties for the 6 December 2026 National People's Assembly vote because Guinea-Bissau’s political field remains highly fragmented after the November 2025 coup annulled prior results and installed a military-led transitional authority. The August 2026 constitutional referendum, which passed officially with roughly 70 percent support but faced opposition boycotts and reports of low turnout, reduced assembly seats from 102 to 65 and strengthened presidential powers, further complicating coalition-building among historical actors such as PAIGC and PRS-linked groups alongside smaller formations like FREPASNA and Platforma Republicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné.” Upcoming candidate registration deadlines and any clarification on participation by major opposition currents could shift implied probabilities by clarifying viable alliances or exclusion risks in the proportional system.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau.
If voting in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau election does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will be resolved in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation or name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the National People's Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau.
If voting in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau election does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will be resolved in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation or name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the National People's Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
Wolumen
$159,271Data zakończenia
Nov 23, 2025Rynek otwarty
Nov 7, 2025, 11:46 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x2F5e3684c...Traders assign low single-digit to mid-teen probabilities across listed parties for the 6 December 2026 National People's Assembly vote because Guinea-Bissau’s political field remains highly fragmented after the November 2025 coup annulled prior results and installed a military-led transitional authority. The August 2026 constitutional referendum, which passed officially with roughly 70 percent support but faced opposition boycotts and reports of low turnout, reduced assembly seats from 102 to 65 and strengthened presidential powers, further complicating coalition-building among historical actors such as PAIGC and PRS-linked groups alongside smaller formations like FREPASNA and Platforma Republicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné.” Upcoming candidate registration deadlines and any clarification on participation by major opposition currents could shift implied probabilities by clarifying viable alliances or exclusion risks in the proportional system.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania