**Current forecasts for Buenos Aires on August 21 point to a daytime maximum near 12–13°C, aligning with the closely matched market-implied odds of 49.5% for 12°C and 40.5% for 13°C.** August marks mid-winter in the Southern Hemisphere, when average highs in the city typically range 13–17°C. A recent cold front has kept temperatures suppressed, with models from the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and global ensembles projecting an overcast to partly cloudy day with light southerly winds. Afternoon cloud cover and limited solar heating are expected to cap the peak around midday or early afternoon, creating the narrow spread between 12°C and 13°C. Small differences in model guidance on exact cloud timing, wind speed, or boundary-layer mixing explain the tight probability split; clearer breaks could briefly push readings to 13°C, while persistent low stratus would favor 12°C or slightly below. Historical August variability shows swings of several degrees from day to day, but the current synoptic pattern supports a contained outcome without significant warm advection. Updated model runs and official SMN briefings on the morning of August 21 will provide the final inputs for resolution.