Recent forecasts for Mexico City point to daytime maxima near 25–26°C on August 21 under typical subtropical highland conditions at roughly 2,240 m elevation. Afternoon convective clouds and scattered showers, driven by the North American monsoon, are expected to limit insolation and cap warming, consistent with mid-August climatology where observed highs average 24–25°C but can reach 27°C on clearer days. Model consensus emphasizes modest variability from exact rain timing and cloud persistence, which explains the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around the leading 25°C and 26°C outcomes. Updated official guidance from Servicio Meteorológico Nacional or equivalent stations will provide the final observational resolution.