Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) activity across Luzon, with PAGASA forecasting 40% rain chances and mostly cloudy skies for Manila on August 20–21, is the dominant factor capping daytime maxima near seasonal norms. Enhanced moisture and frequent showers reduce incoming solar radiation, limiting peak heating compared to clearer conditions, while urban heat-island effects in Metro Manila still support readings in the low 30s °C. Model consensus and recent observations point to 31–33 °C as the most probable range, with the tight spread among market-implied probabilities reflecting uncertainty over exact cloud breaks versus sustained rainfall. Updated PAGASA guidance and any new low-pressure developments will be the key near-term catalysts.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Manila on August 21?
Highest temperature in Manila on August 21?
32°C 27%
33°C 24%
31°C 23%
30°C 14%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 21, 2026
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
2%
29°C
5%
30°C
14%
31°C
23%
32°C
27%
33°C
24%
34°C
3%
35°C
<1%
36°C or higher
<1%
32°C 27%
33°C 24%
31°C 23%
30°C 14%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 21, 2026
26°C or below
$121 Wol.
<1%
27°C
$176 Wol.
1%
28°C
$31 Wol.
2%
29°C
$6 Wol.
5%
30°C
$0 Wol.
14%
31°C
$0 Wol.
23%
32°C
$9 Wol.
27%
33°C
$0 Wol.
24%
34°C
$50 Wol.
3%
35°C
$0 Wol.
<1%
36°C or higher
$7 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) activity across Luzon, with PAGASA forecasting 40% rain chances and mostly cloudy skies for Manila on August 20–21, is the dominant factor capping daytime maxima near seasonal norms. Enhanced moisture and frequent showers reduce incoming solar radiation, limiting peak heating compared to clearer conditions, while urban heat-island effects in Metro Manila still support readings in the low 30s °C. Model consensus and recent observations point to 31–33 °C as the most probable range, with the tight spread among market-implied probabilities reflecting uncertainty over exact cloud breaks versus sustained rainfall. Updated PAGASA guidance and any new low-pressure developments will be the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 19, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Wolumen
$381Data zakończenia
Aug 21, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 19, 2026, 12:58 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) activity across Luzon, with PAGASA forecasting 40% rain chances and mostly cloudy skies for Manila on August 20–21, is the dominant factor capping daytime maxima near seasonal norms. Enhanced moisture and frequent showers reduce incoming solar radiation, limiting peak heating compared to clearer conditions, while urban heat-island effects in Metro Manila still support readings in the low 30s °C. Model consensus and recent observations point to 31–33 °C as the most probable range, with the tight spread among market-implied probabilities reflecting uncertainty over exact cloud breaks versus sustained rainfall. Updated PAGASA guidance and any new low-pressure developments will be the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$381Data zakończenia
Aug 21, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 19, 2026, 12:58 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) activity across Luzon, with PAGASA forecasting 40% rain chances and mostly cloudy skies for Manila on August 20–21, is the dominant factor capping daytime maxima near seasonal norms. Enhanced moisture and frequent showers reduce incoming solar radiation, limiting peak heating compared to clearer conditions, while urban heat-island effects in Metro Manila still support readings in the low 30s °C. Model consensus and recent observations point to 31–33 °C as the most probable range, with the tight spread among market-implied probabilities reflecting uncertainty over exact cloud breaks versus sustained rainfall. Updated PAGASA guidance and any new low-pressure developments will be the key near-term catalysts.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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