Numerical weather prediction models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and other agencies form the core driver of trader sentiment, consistently projecting Moscow's August 21 daytime maximum near 22–23°C under typical late-summer atmospheric conditions with moderate high pressure and limited moisture advection. These forecasts align with climatological August averages around 20–22°C and show strong consensus across recent model runs, reducing spread in the 48-hour window before resolution. Minor uncertainties remain from possible cloud cover or localized wind shifts that could trim or boost the peak by 1°C, while longer-range historical analogs and current ensemble outputs reinforce the narrow 21–23°C cluster as the highest-probability band. Market-implied odds aggregate this model evidence with trader assessment of forecast reliability.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Moscow on August 21?
Highest temperature in Moscow on August 21?
23°C 45%
22°C 34%
21°C 11%
24°C 10%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 21, 2026
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
2%
20°C
3%
21°C
11%
22°C
34%
23°C
45%
24°C
10%
25°C
3%
26°C or higher
2%
23°C 45%
22°C 34%
21°C 11%
24°C 10%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 21, 2026
16°C or below
$593 Wol.
<1%
17°C
$393 Wol.
<1%
18°C
$127 Wol.
<1%
19°C
$20 Wol.
2%
20°C
$25 Wol.
3%
21°C
$14 Wol.
11%
22°C
$66 Wol.
34%
23°C
$452 Wol.
45%
24°C
$58 Wol.
10%
25°C
$35 Wol.
3%
26°C or higher
$162 Wol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Numerical weather prediction models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and other agencies form the core driver of trader sentiment, consistently projecting Moscow's August 21 daytime maximum near 22–23°C under typical late-summer atmospheric conditions with moderate high pressure and limited moisture advection. These forecasts align with climatological August averages around 20–22°C and show strong consensus across recent model runs, reducing spread in the 48-hour window before resolution. Minor uncertainties remain from possible cloud cover or localized wind shifts that could trim or boost the peak by 1°C, while longer-range historical analogs and current ensemble outputs reinforce the narrow 21–23°C cluster as the highest-probability band. Market-implied odds aggregate this model evidence with trader assessment of forecast reliability.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 19, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Wolumen
$1,944Data zakończenia
Aug 21, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 19, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Numerical weather prediction models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and other agencies form the core driver of trader sentiment, consistently projecting Moscow's August 21 daytime maximum near 22–23°C under typical late-summer atmospheric conditions with moderate high pressure and limited moisture advection. These forecasts align with climatological August averages around 20–22°C and show strong consensus across recent model runs, reducing spread in the 48-hour window before resolution. Minor uncertainties remain from possible cloud cover or localized wind shifts that could trim or boost the peak by 1°C, while longer-range historical analogs and current ensemble outputs reinforce the narrow 21–23°C cluster as the highest-probability band. Market-implied odds aggregate this model evidence with trader assessment of forecast reliability.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$1,944Data zakończenia
Aug 21, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 19, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Numerical weather prediction models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and other agencies form the core driver of trader sentiment, consistently projecting Moscow's August 21 daytime maximum near 22–23°C under typical late-summer atmospheric conditions with moderate high pressure and limited moisture advection. These forecasts align with climatological August averages around 20–22°C and show strong consensus across recent model runs, reducing spread in the 48-hour window before resolution. Minor uncertainties remain from possible cloud cover or localized wind shifts that could trim or boost the peak by 1°C, while longer-range historical analogs and current ensemble outputs reinforce the narrow 21–23°C cluster as the highest-probability band. Market-implied odds aggregate this model evidence with trader assessment of forecast reliability.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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