Trader consensus heavily favors a Madrid high near 31–32 °C on August 21, reflecting numerical weather prediction consensus from models such as ECMWF and AEMET guidance showing daytime maxima around 31–32 °C under typical late-summer high-pressure conditions with light winds and minimal cloud cover. Historical August climatology places average highs near 32 °C, providing a baseline that aligns with current short-range forecasts, while the two-day lead time leaves limited room for major shifts from steering patterns or diurnal heating. Recent model runs have shown little dispersion around this range, supporting the dominant 31 °C implied probability while underscoring that any unexpected moisture influx or clearer skies could nudge readings slightly higher or lower before resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Madrid on August 21?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 21?
31°C 49%
32°C 22%
30°C 15%
33°C 5%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 21, 2026
27°C or below
1%
28°C
1%
29°C
5%
30°C
15%
31°C
49%
32°C
22%
33°C
5%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C or higher
<1%
31°C 49%
32°C 22%
30°C 15%
33°C 5%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 21, 2026
27°C or below
$114 Wol.
1%
28°C
$10 Wol.
1%
29°C
$42 Wol.
5%
30°C
$111 Wol.
15%
31°C
$228 Wol.
49%
32°C
$130 Wol.
22%
33°C
$43 Wol.
5%
34°C
$36 Wol.
<1%
35°C
$10 Wol.
<1%
36°C
$106 Wol.
<1%
37°C or higher
$117 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus heavily favors a Madrid high near 31–32 °C on August 21, reflecting numerical weather prediction consensus from models such as ECMWF and AEMET guidance showing daytime maxima around 31–32 °C under typical late-summer high-pressure conditions with light winds and minimal cloud cover. Historical August climatology places average highs near 32 °C, providing a baseline that aligns with current short-range forecasts, while the two-day lead time leaves limited room for major shifts from steering patterns or diurnal heating. Recent model runs have shown little dispersion around this range, supporting the dominant 31 °C implied probability while underscoring that any unexpected moisture influx or clearer skies could nudge readings slightly higher or lower before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Wolumen
$920Data zakończenia
Aug 21, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus heavily favors a Madrid high near 31–32 °C on August 21, reflecting numerical weather prediction consensus from models such as ECMWF and AEMET guidance showing daytime maxima around 31–32 °C under typical late-summer high-pressure conditions with light winds and minimal cloud cover. Historical August climatology places average highs near 32 °C, providing a baseline that aligns with current short-range forecasts, while the two-day lead time leaves limited room for major shifts from steering patterns or diurnal heating. Recent model runs have shown little dispersion around this range, supporting the dominant 31 °C implied probability while underscoring that any unexpected moisture influx or clearer skies could nudge readings slightly higher or lower before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$920Data zakończenia
Aug 21, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors a Madrid high near 31–32 °C on August 21, reflecting numerical weather prediction consensus from models such as ECMWF and AEMET guidance showing daytime maxima around 31–32 °C under typical late-summer high-pressure conditions with light winds and minimal cloud cover. Historical August climatology places average highs near 32 °C, providing a baseline that aligns with current short-range forecasts, while the two-day lead time leaves limited room for major shifts from steering patterns or diurnal heating. Recent model runs have shown little dispersion around this range, supporting the dominant 31 °C implied probability while underscoring that any unexpected moisture influx or clearer skies could nudge readings slightly higher or lower before resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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