Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) activity is the dominant driver, with PAGASA forecasting continued cloudy skies and scattered rains or thunderstorms over Metro Manila through August 20. This cloud cover and precipitation reduce incoming solar radiation, limiting daytime heating and favoring peak temperatures near or slightly below the seasonal August average of about 31°C. Recent model guidance shows highs around 29–32°C depending on the exact timing and intensity of convective bursts, creating tight clustering in market-implied odds between 30°C and 32°C. Clearer intervals between showers could allow brief warming to 32–33°C, while heavier or more persistent rainfall would cap readings closer to 29–30°C. With resolution only two days away, traders are weighting official agency updates on monsoon strength and any short-term forecast revisions most heavily.