**Current short-range forecasts from sources including the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and international models place Tokyo’s August 18 maximum near 31–32°C under mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions, aligning with the market’s tightest clustering on 30°C (25.5%), 31°C (34.0%), and 32°C (18.0%).** A strengthened Pacific High is sustaining above-normal summer temperatures across Honshu, while Tokyo’s urban heat-island effect and typical August humidity levels (often 75–80%) amplify daytime peaks. Minor differences among leading outcomes hinge on variables such as afternoon cloud cover, light winds, or brief showers that could cap or boost the daily maximum by 1°C. With resolution only two days away, traders are weighting the latest JMA and ensemble guidance, which shows limited spread and favors the narrow 30–32°C band over rarer extremes. Updated model runs and official briefings in the next 24–48 hours remain the key catalysts for any shifts in implied probabilities.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Tokyo on August 18?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 18?
31°C 33%
30°C 26%
32°C 18%
29°C 13%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 18, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
6%
29°C
13%
30°C
26%
31°C
33%
32°C
18%
33°C
4%
34°C
6%
35°C or higher
1%
31°C 33%
30°C 26%
32°C 18%
29°C 13%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 18, 2026
25°C or below
$0 Wol.
<1%
26°C
$0 Wol.
<1%
27°C
$0 Wol.
1%
28°C
$14 Wol.
6%
29°C
$47 Wol.
13%
30°C
$26 Wol.
26%
31°C
$8 Wol.
33%
32°C
$11 Wol.
18%
33°C
$0 Wol.
4%
34°C
$30 Wol.
6%
35°C or higher
$0 Wol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current short-range forecasts from sources including the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and international models place Tokyo’s August 18 maximum near 31–32°C under mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions, aligning with the market’s tightest clustering on 30°C (25.5%), 31°C (34.0%), and 32°C (18.0%).**
A strengthened Pacific High is sustaining above-normal summer temperatures across Honshu, while Tokyo’s urban heat-island effect and typical August humidity levels (often 75–80%) amplify daytime peaks. Minor differences among leading outcomes hinge on variables such as afternoon cloud cover, light winds, or brief showers that could cap or boost the daily maximum by 1°C. With resolution only two days away, traders are weighting the latest JMA and ensemble guidance, which shows limited spread and favors the narrow 30–32°C band over rarer extremes. Updated model runs and official briefings in the next 24–48 hours remain the key catalysts for any shifts in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Wolumen
$136Data zakończenia
Aug 18, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current short-range forecasts from sources including the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and international models place Tokyo’s August 18 maximum near 31–32°C under mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions, aligning with the market’s tightest clustering on 30°C (25.5%), 31°C (34.0%), and 32°C (18.0%).**
A strengthened Pacific High is sustaining above-normal summer temperatures across Honshu, while Tokyo’s urban heat-island effect and typical August humidity levels (often 75–80%) amplify daytime peaks. Minor differences among leading outcomes hinge on variables such as afternoon cloud cover, light winds, or brief showers that could cap or boost the daily maximum by 1°C. With resolution only two days away, traders are weighting the latest JMA and ensemble guidance, which shows limited spread and favors the narrow 30–32°C band over rarer extremes. Updated model runs and official briefings in the next 24–48 hours remain the key catalysts for any shifts in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$136Data zakończenia
Aug 18, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Current short-range forecasts from sources including the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and international models place Tokyo’s August 18 maximum near 31–32°C under mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions, aligning with the market’s tightest clustering on 30°C (25.5%), 31°C (34.0%), and 32°C (18.0%).** A strengthened Pacific High is sustaining above-normal summer temperatures across Honshu, while Tokyo’s urban heat-island effect and typical August humidity levels (often 75–80%) amplify daytime peaks. Minor differences among leading outcomes hinge on variables such as afternoon cloud cover, light winds, or brief showers that could cap or boost the daily maximum by 1°C. With resolution only two days away, traders are weighting the latest JMA and ensemble guidance, which shows limited spread and favors the narrow 30–32°C band over rarer extremes. Updated model runs and official briefings in the next 24–48 hours remain the key catalysts for any shifts in implied probabilities.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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