The evenly distributed market probabilities across 22–28°C highlight substantial ensemble forecast spread in the latest Met Office and ECMWF runs for London's maximum temperature on August 18. Primary drivers include uncertainty over the precise positioning of a weak high-pressure ridge versus approaching Atlantic fronts, which will determine cloud cover, solar insolation, and boundary-layer mixing. Seasonal norms place mid-August London highs near 23–24°C, yet model disagreement on jet-stream meanders and moisture advection creates a wide temperature range. Updated model cycles and observational data from the next 48 hours will likely tighten these probabilities as the event window narrows.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in London on August 18?
Highest temperature in London on August 18?
25°C 36%
24°C 22%
26°C 20%
27°C 17%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 18, 2026
22°C or below
7%
23°C
8%
24°C
22%
25°C
23%
26°C
19%
27°C
17%
28°C
10%
29°C
3%
30°C
1%
31°C
1%
32°C or higher
1%
25°C 36%
24°C 22%
26°C 20%
27°C 17%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 18, 2026
22°C or below
$110 Wol.
7%
23°C
$70 Wol.
8%
24°C
$0 Wol.
22%
25°C
$11 Wol.
23%
26°C
$13 Wol.
19%
27°C
$0 Wol.
17%
28°C
$70 Wol.
10%
29°C
$0 Wol.
3%
30°C
$0 Wol.
1%
31°C
$0 Wol.
1%
32°C or higher
$0 Wol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The evenly distributed market probabilities across 22–28°C highlight substantial ensemble forecast spread in the latest Met Office and ECMWF runs for London's maximum temperature on August 18. Primary drivers include uncertainty over the precise positioning of a weak high-pressure ridge versus approaching Atlantic fronts, which will determine cloud cover, solar insolation, and boundary-layer mixing. Seasonal norms place mid-August London highs near 23–24°C, yet model disagreement on jet-stream meanders and moisture advection creates a wide temperature range. Updated model cycles and observational data from the next 48 hours will likely tighten these probabilities as the event window narrows.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 16, 2026, 12:55 AM ET
Wolumen
$274Data zakończenia
Aug 18, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 16, 2026, 12:55 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The evenly distributed market probabilities across 22–28°C highlight substantial ensemble forecast spread in the latest Met Office and ECMWF runs for London's maximum temperature on August 18. Primary drivers include uncertainty over the precise positioning of a weak high-pressure ridge versus approaching Atlantic fronts, which will determine cloud cover, solar insolation, and boundary-layer mixing. Seasonal norms place mid-August London highs near 23–24°C, yet model disagreement on jet-stream meanders and moisture advection creates a wide temperature range. Updated model cycles and observational data from the next 48 hours will likely tighten these probabilities as the event window narrows.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$274Data zakończenia
Aug 18, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 16, 2026, 12:55 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...The evenly distributed market probabilities across 22–28°C highlight substantial ensemble forecast spread in the latest Met Office and ECMWF runs for London's maximum temperature on August 18. Primary drivers include uncertainty over the precise positioning of a weak high-pressure ridge versus approaching Atlantic fronts, which will determine cloud cover, solar insolation, and boundary-layer mixing. Seasonal norms place mid-August London highs near 23–24°C, yet model disagreement on jet-stream meanders and moisture advection creates a wide temperature range. Updated model cycles and observational data from the next 48 hours will likely tighten these probabilities as the event window narrows.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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