**Uncertainty in afternoon cloud cover, shower timing, and sea-breeze strength is driving the tight split between the 88-89°F (39.5%) and 86-87°F (35.5%) bins for NYC’s August 19 high.** National Weather Service guidance and ensemble models place the Central Park maximum near 84–86°F, with spreads into the upper 80s or low 90s depending on whether skies clear enough for full insolation or scattered convection and onshore flow develop. Historical August normals hover around 83°F, so current conditions sit slightly above average amid a broader seasonal pattern of warmer-than-normal temperatures. Traders are weighting the probability of modest suppression versus modest exceedance of the point forecast, with lower-probability tails reflecting the limited chance of stronger ridging or complete cloud cover. Updated model runs and NHC-adjacent guidance through the evening of August 18 will likely refine the range before resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in NYC on August 19?
Highest temperature in NYC on August 19?
88-89°F 40%
86-87°F 38%
90-91°F 13%
84-85°F 9%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 19, 2026
75°F or below
<1%
76-77°F
<1%
78-79°F
<1%
80-81°F
<1%
82-83°F
2%
84-85°F
9%
86-87°F
38%
88-89°F
40%
90-91°F
13%
92-93°F
5%
94°F or higher
2%
88-89°F 40%
86-87°F 38%
90-91°F 13%
84-85°F 9%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 19, 2026
75°F or below
$25 Wol.
<1%
76-77°F
$41 Wol.
<1%
78-79°F
$152 Wol.
<1%
80-81°F
$333 Wol.
<1%
82-83°F
$21 Wol.
2%
84-85°F
$285 Wol.
9%
86-87°F
$129 Wol.
38%
88-89°F
$137 Wol.
40%
90-91°F
$58 Wol.
13%
92-93°F
$189 Wol.
5%
94°F or higher
$288 Wol.
2%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Uncertainty in afternoon cloud cover, shower timing, and sea-breeze strength is driving the tight split between the 88-89°F (39.5%) and 86-87°F (35.5%) bins for NYC’s August 19 high.** National Weather Service guidance and ensemble models place the Central Park maximum near 84–86°F, with spreads into the upper 80s or low 90s depending on whether skies clear enough for full insolation or scattered convection and onshore flow develop. Historical August normals hover around 83°F, so current conditions sit slightly above average amid a broader seasonal pattern of warmer-than-normal temperatures. Traders are weighting the probability of modest suppression versus modest exceedance of the point forecast, with lower-probability tails reflecting the limited chance of stronger ridging or complete cloud cover. Updated model runs and NHC-adjacent guidance through the evening of August 18 will likely refine the range before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 17, 2026, 9:56 PM ET
Wolumen
$1,657Data zakończenia
Aug 19, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 17, 2026, 9:56 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Uncertainty in afternoon cloud cover, shower timing, and sea-breeze strength is driving the tight split between the 88-89°F (39.5%) and 86-87°F (35.5%) bins for NYC’s August 19 high.** National Weather Service guidance and ensemble models place the Central Park maximum near 84–86°F, with spreads into the upper 80s or low 90s depending on whether skies clear enough for full insolation or scattered convection and onshore flow develop. Historical August normals hover around 83°F, so current conditions sit slightly above average amid a broader seasonal pattern of warmer-than-normal temperatures. Traders are weighting the probability of modest suppression versus modest exceedance of the point forecast, with lower-probability tails reflecting the limited chance of stronger ridging or complete cloud cover. Updated model runs and NHC-adjacent guidance through the evening of August 18 will likely refine the range before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$1,657Data zakończenia
Aug 19, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 17, 2026, 9:56 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Uncertainty in afternoon cloud cover, shower timing, and sea-breeze strength is driving the tight split between the 88-89°F (39.5%) and 86-87°F (35.5%) bins for NYC’s August 19 high.** National Weather Service guidance and ensemble models place the Central Park maximum near 84–86°F, with spreads into the upper 80s or low 90s depending on whether skies clear enough for full insolation or scattered convection and onshore flow develop. Historical August normals hover around 83°F, so current conditions sit slightly above average amid a broader seasonal pattern of warmer-than-normal temperatures. Traders are weighting the probability of modest suppression versus modest exceedance of the point forecast, with lower-probability tails reflecting the limited chance of stronger ridging or complete cloud cover. Updated model runs and NHC-adjacent guidance through the evening of August 18 will likely refine the range before resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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