Recent NWS and model guidance for Chicago points to a cooler-than-normal air mass, persistent cloud cover, and showers limiting daytime heating, positioning mid-70s Fahrenheit as the most likely range for the August 2 high. This aligns with market-implied odds favoring 76-77°F (43%) and 74-75°F (30%), well below the 83.8°F climatological normal. Ensemble forecasts show limited warming potential due to easterly flow and moisture, with only modest upside risk if skies clear earlier than expected. Updated model runs and NWS briefings through the morning of August 2 will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Chicago on August 2?
Highest temperature in Chicago on August 2?
76-77°F 44%
74-75°F 31%
78-79°F 21%
72-73°F 5%
NOWE
$10,415 Wol.
NOWE
$10,415 Wol.
Aug 2, 2026
65°F or below
1%
66-67°F
<1%
68-69°F
<1%
70-71°F
2%
72-73°F
5%
74-75°F
31%
76-77°F
44%
78-79°F
21%
80-81°F
2%
82-83°F
1%
84°F or higher
<1%
76-77°F 44%
74-75°F 31%
78-79°F 21%
72-73°F 5%
NOWE
$10,415 Wol.
NOWE
$10,415 Wol.
Aug 2, 2026
65°F or below
$490 Wol.
1%
66-67°F
$476 Wol.
<1%
68-69°F
$614 Wol.
<1%
70-71°F
$386 Wol.
2%
72-73°F
$317 Wol.
5%
74-75°F
$1,932 Wol.
31%
76-77°F
$3,651 Wol.
44%
78-79°F
$318 Wol.
21%
80-81°F
$1,740 Wol.
2%
82-83°F
$129 Wol.
1%
84°F or higher
$361 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent NWS and model guidance for Chicago points to a cooler-than-normal air mass, persistent cloud cover, and showers limiting daytime heating, positioning mid-70s Fahrenheit as the most likely range for the August 2 high. This aligns with market-implied odds favoring 76-77°F (43%) and 74-75°F (30%), well below the 83.8°F climatological normal. Ensemble forecasts show limited warming potential due to easterly flow and moisture, with only modest upside risk if skies clear earlier than expected. Updated model runs and NWS briefings through the morning of August 2 will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 31, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
Wolumen
$10,415Data zakończenia
Aug 2, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 31, 2026, 9:02 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent NWS and model guidance for Chicago points to a cooler-than-normal air mass, persistent cloud cover, and showers limiting daytime heating, positioning mid-70s Fahrenheit as the most likely range for the August 2 high. This aligns with market-implied odds favoring 76-77°F (43%) and 74-75°F (30%), well below the 83.8°F climatological normal. Ensemble forecasts show limited warming potential due to easterly flow and moisture, with only modest upside risk if skies clear earlier than expected. Updated model runs and NWS briefings through the morning of August 2 will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$10,415Data zakończenia
Aug 2, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 31, 2026, 9:02 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent NWS and model guidance for Chicago points to a cooler-than-normal air mass, persistent cloud cover, and showers limiting daytime heating, positioning mid-70s Fahrenheit as the most likely range for the August 2 high. This aligns with market-implied odds favoring 76-77°F (43%) and 74-75°F (30%), well below the 83.8°F climatological normal. Ensemble forecasts show limited warming potential due to easterly flow and moisture, with only modest upside risk if skies clear earlier than expected. Updated model runs and NWS briefings through the morning of August 2 will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania