Forecast uncertainty in short-range numerical weather prediction models is the main driver behind the tight clustering of trader probabilities around 20–23°C for Moscow’s July 23 daily maximum. Ensemble spreads show modest variability in daytime heating tied to subtle differences in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and weak cold-air advection ahead of a passing trough. Historical July climatology places the long-term average high near 23°C, yet current guidance from multiple centers indicates slightly suppressed values around 20–22°C due to increased cloudiness and lighter winds. Resolution hinges on the official Moscow station reading, where even a 1°C shift from model bias or local microclimate effects can separate the leading outcomes. Updated runs ahead of the 48-hour window will likely tighten or shift these probabilities as new observational data arrives.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Moscow on July 23?
Highest temperature in Moscow on July 23?
22°C 33%
23°C 28%
21°C 20%
24°C 11%
NOWE
NOWE
Jul 23, 2026
18°C or below
1%
19°C
3%
20°C
11%
21°C
20%
22°C
33%
23°C
28%
24°C
11%
25°C
2%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C or higher
<1%
22°C 33%
23°C 28%
21°C 20%
24°C 11%
NOWE
NOWE
Jul 23, 2026
18°C or below
$537 Wol.
1%
19°C
$9 Wol.
3%
20°C
$9 Wol.
11%
21°C
$6 Wol.
20%
22°C
$37 Wol.
33%
23°C
$2 Wol.
28%
24°C
$48 Wol.
11%
25°C
$39 Wol.
2%
26°C
$38 Wol.
<1%
27°C
$158 Wol.
<1%
28°C or higher
$125 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast uncertainty in short-range numerical weather prediction models is the main driver behind the tight clustering of trader probabilities around 20–23°C for Moscow’s July 23 daily maximum. Ensemble spreads show modest variability in daytime heating tied to subtle differences in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and weak cold-air advection ahead of a passing trough. Historical July climatology places the long-term average high near 23°C, yet current guidance from multiple centers indicates slightly suppressed values around 20–22°C due to increased cloudiness and lighter winds. Resolution hinges on the official Moscow station reading, where even a 1°C shift from model bias or local microclimate effects can separate the leading outcomes. Updated runs ahead of the 48-hour window will likely tighten or shift these probabilities as new observational data arrives.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 21, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Wolumen
$1,002Data zakończenia
Jul 23, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 21, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast uncertainty in short-range numerical weather prediction models is the main driver behind the tight clustering of trader probabilities around 20–23°C for Moscow’s July 23 daily maximum. Ensemble spreads show modest variability in daytime heating tied to subtle differences in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and weak cold-air advection ahead of a passing trough. Historical July climatology places the long-term average high near 23°C, yet current guidance from multiple centers indicates slightly suppressed values around 20–22°C due to increased cloudiness and lighter winds. Resolution hinges on the official Moscow station reading, where even a 1°C shift from model bias or local microclimate effects can separate the leading outcomes. Updated runs ahead of the 48-hour window will likely tighten or shift these probabilities as new observational data arrives.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$1,002Data zakończenia
Jul 23, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 21, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast uncertainty in short-range numerical weather prediction models is the main driver behind the tight clustering of trader probabilities around 20–23°C for Moscow’s July 23 daily maximum. Ensemble spreads show modest variability in daytime heating tied to subtle differences in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and weak cold-air advection ahead of a passing trough. Historical July climatology places the long-term average high near 23°C, yet current guidance from multiple centers indicates slightly suppressed values around 20–22°C due to increased cloudiness and lighter winds. Resolution hinges on the official Moscow station reading, where even a 1°C shift from model bias or local microclimate effects can separate the leading outcomes. Updated runs ahead of the 48-hour window will likely tighten or shift these probabilities as new observational data arrives.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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