Current ensemble forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration point to scattered thunderstorms and high humidity on July 24 moderating Seoul’s peak temperature near 30°C, aligning with the market’s leading 37% implied probability for that exact outcome. Typical July conditions feature daytime highs of 28–31°C under the East Asian monsoon, with rain-cooled air and cloud cover often preventing stronger heating; recent short-range guidance shows light winds and 70–90% humidity further limiting diurnal rise. The 20.5% chance assigned to 32°C or higher reflects residual uncertainty in model runs that allow brief sun breaks to push readings higher, while lower bins capture cooler scenarios if heavier precipitation arrives earlier. Updated forecasts over the next 48 hours will likely tighten these ranges ahead of market resolution.