Recent forecasts indicate widespread thunderstorms and persistent cloud cover over Shenzhen on September 2, driven by a broad low-pressure trough in the South China Sea and residual monsoon moisture. These conditions reduce incoming solar radiation and enhance evaporative cooling, capping daytime maxima near 24–26°C at official stations despite the subtropical baseline. Model consensus shows high humidity and northwest winds further suppressing heat buildup, though timing of any clearing could allow brief warming toward 30–31°C. Historical September averages near 31°C highlight how convective activity creates the key uncertainty separating the closely matched low- and mid-20s outcomes from higher thresholds. Updated model runs and local observations will refine this range ahead of resolution.