Recent forecasts indicate Madrid will experience clear skies and light winds under a strengthening high-pressure ridge on August 31, favoring daytime heating. Current model consensus from sources such as AEMET projects highs near 33°C, above the long-term average of about 30°C, yet the 50% market-implied odds for 39°C or higher reflect trader assessment of forecast spread and potential for stronger warm-air advection or reduced mixing. Historical August records reaching 40°C+ underscore that late-summer extremes remain possible under similar synoptic patterns. Updated runs from major global models in the next 24–48 hours represent the key near-term catalyst for any shift in these probabilities.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Madrid on August 31?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 31?
34°C 52%
35°C 32%
36°C 20%
38°C 20%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 31, 2026
29°C or below
4%
30°C
4%
31°C
2%
32°C
7%
33°C
14%
34°C
52%
35°C
32%
36°C
20%
37°C
15%
38°C
20%
39°C or higher
2%
34°C 52%
35°C 32%
36°C 20%
38°C 20%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 31, 2026
29°C or below
$0 Wol.
4%
30°C
$0 Wol.
4%
31°C
$0 Wol.
2%
32°C
$0 Wol.
7%
33°C
$7 Wol.
14%
34°C
$11 Wol.
52%
35°C
$8 Wol.
32%
36°C
$0 Wol.
20%
37°C
$0 Wol.
15%
38°C
$0 Wol.
20%
39°C or higher
$0 Wol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts indicate Madrid will experience clear skies and light winds under a strengthening high-pressure ridge on August 31, favoring daytime heating. Current model consensus from sources such as AEMET projects highs near 33°C, above the long-term average of about 30°C, yet the 50% market-implied odds for 39°C or higher reflect trader assessment of forecast spread and potential for stronger warm-air advection or reduced mixing. Historical August records reaching 40°C+ underscore that late-summer extremes remain possible under similar synoptic patterns. Updated runs from major global models in the next 24–48 hours represent the key near-term catalyst for any shift in these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 29, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Wolumen
$26Data zakończenia
Aug 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 29, 2026, 12:57 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts indicate Madrid will experience clear skies and light winds under a strengthening high-pressure ridge on August 31, favoring daytime heating. Current model consensus from sources such as AEMET projects highs near 33°C, above the long-term average of about 30°C, yet the 50% market-implied odds for 39°C or higher reflect trader assessment of forecast spread and potential for stronger warm-air advection or reduced mixing. Historical August records reaching 40°C+ underscore that late-summer extremes remain possible under similar synoptic patterns. Updated runs from major global models in the next 24–48 hours represent the key near-term catalyst for any shift in these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$26Data zakończenia
Aug 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 29, 2026, 12:57 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts indicate Madrid will experience clear skies and light winds under a strengthening high-pressure ridge on August 31, favoring daytime heating. Current model consensus from sources such as AEMET projects highs near 33°C, above the long-term average of about 30°C, yet the 50% market-implied odds for 39°C or higher reflect trader assessment of forecast spread and potential for stronger warm-air advection or reduced mixing. Historical August records reaching 40°C+ underscore that late-summer extremes remain possible under similar synoptic patterns. Updated runs from major global models in the next 24–48 hours represent the key near-term catalyst for any shift in these probabilities.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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