Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño 3.4 anomalies exceeding +2.5°C and forecasts for further intensification through fall 2026, represent the dominant influence on trader positioning for Seoul September rainfall. Historical analogs and multi-model outlooks from agencies like APCC and Korean meteorological sources indicate elevated odds of below-normal precipitation across the western North Pacific and East Asia during this phase, as enhanced convection shifts eastward and subtropical high pressure strengthens. Average September totals hover near 140–170 mm based on 1991–2020 normals, yet interannual variability remains high due to typhoon tracks and monsoon remnants. The tight clustering of market-implied odds around the 150–200 mm range reflects this balance of climatological baseline against the drying signal from the developing El Niño, with upcoming September model runs from NOAA and KMA likely to refine probabilities.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoPrecipitation in Seoul in September?
Precipitation in Seoul in September?
<75mm 26%
175-200mm 8%
75-100mm 5%
100-125mm 5%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 30, 2026
<75mm
26%
75-100mm
29%
100-125mm
24%
125-150mm
28%
150-175mm
38%
175-200mm
25%
200-250mm
25%
250mm+
24%
<75mm 26%
175-200mm 8%
75-100mm 5%
100-125mm 5%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 30, 2026
<75mm
$20 Wol.
26%
75-100mm
$20 Wol.
29%
100-125mm
$20 Wol.
24%
125-150mm
$20 Wol.
28%
150-175mm
$20 Wol.
38%
175-200mm
$60 Wol.
25%
200-250mm
$20 Wol.
25%
250mm+
$20 Wol.
24%
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Seoul in September, 2026, according to the Korea Meteorological Administration's information for the region/branch of "Seoul".
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Korea Meteorological Administration, specifically the figure for monthly precipitation in mm when the classification is set for "ground", the region/branch is set for "Seoul", the element is set for "precipitation", and the period is set for the month of September at the https://data.kma.go.kr/climate/RankState/selectRankStatisticsDivisionList.do link once the figure is finalized for the whole month of September 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño 3.4 anomalies exceeding +2.5°C and forecasts for further intensification through fall 2026, represent the dominant influence on trader positioning for Seoul September rainfall. Historical analogs and multi-model outlooks from agencies like APCC and Korean meteorological sources indicate elevated odds of below-normal precipitation across the western North Pacific and East Asia during this phase, as enhanced convection shifts eastward and subtropical high pressure strengthens. Average September totals hover near 140–170 mm based on 1991–2020 normals, yet interannual variability remains high due to typhoon tracks and monsoon remnants. The tight clustering of market-implied odds around the 150–200 mm range reflects this balance of climatological baseline against the drying signal from the developing El Niño, with upcoming September model runs from NOAA and KMA likely to refine probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Seoul in September, 2026, according to the Korea Meteorological Administration's information for the region/branch of "Seoul".
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Korea Meteorological Administration, specifically the figure for monthly precipitation in mm when the classification is set for "ground", the region/branch is set for "Seoul", the element is set for "precipitation", and the period is set for the month of September at the https://data.kma.go.kr/climate/RankState/selectRankStatisticsDivisionList.do link once the figure is finalized for the whole month of September 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Korea Meteorological Administration, specifically the figure for monthly precipitation in mm when the classification is set for "ground", the region/branch is set for "Seoul", the element is set for "precipitation", and the period is set for the month of September at the https://data.kma.go.kr/climate/RankState/selectRankStatisticsDivisionList.do link once the figure is finalized for the whole month of September 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 31, 2026, 9:40 AM ET
Wolumen
$200Data zakończenia
Oct 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 31, 2026, 9:40 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Seoul in September, 2026, according to the Korea Meteorological Administration's information for the region/branch of "Seoul".
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Korea Meteorological Administration, specifically the figure for monthly precipitation in mm when the classification is set for "ground", the region/branch is set for "Seoul", the element is set for "precipitation", and the period is set for the month of September at the https://data.kma.go.kr/climate/RankState/selectRankStatisticsDivisionList.do link once the figure is finalized for the whole month of September 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño 3.4 anomalies exceeding +2.5°C and forecasts for further intensification through fall 2026, represent the dominant influence on trader positioning for Seoul September rainfall. Historical analogs and multi-model outlooks from agencies like APCC and Korean meteorological sources indicate elevated odds of below-normal precipitation across the western North Pacific and East Asia during this phase, as enhanced convection shifts eastward and subtropical high pressure strengthens. Average September totals hover near 140–170 mm based on 1991–2020 normals, yet interannual variability remains high due to typhoon tracks and monsoon remnants. The tight clustering of market-implied odds around the 150–200 mm range reflects this balance of climatological baseline against the drying signal from the developing El Niño, with upcoming September model runs from NOAA and KMA likely to refine probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Seoul in September, 2026, according to the Korea Meteorological Administration's information for the region/branch of "Seoul".
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Korea Meteorological Administration, specifically the figure for monthly precipitation in mm when the classification is set for "ground", the region/branch is set for "Seoul", the element is set for "precipitation", and the period is set for the month of September at the https://data.kma.go.kr/climate/RankState/selectRankStatisticsDivisionList.do link once the figure is finalized for the whole month of September 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Korea Meteorological Administration, specifically the figure for monthly precipitation in mm when the classification is set for "ground", the region/branch is set for "Seoul", the element is set for "precipitation", and the period is set for the month of September at the https://data.kma.go.kr/climate/RankState/selectRankStatisticsDivisionList.do link once the figure is finalized for the whole month of September 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$200Data zakończenia
Oct 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 31, 2026, 9:40 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño 3.4 anomalies exceeding +2.5°C and forecasts for further intensification through fall 2026, represent the dominant influence on trader positioning for Seoul September rainfall. Historical analogs and multi-model outlooks from agencies like APCC and Korean meteorological sources indicate elevated odds of below-normal precipitation across the western North Pacific and East Asia during this phase, as enhanced convection shifts eastward and subtropical high pressure strengthens. Average September totals hover near 140–170 mm based on 1991–2020 normals, yet interannual variability remains high due to typhoon tracks and monsoon remnants. The tight clustering of market-implied odds around the 150–200 mm range reflects this balance of climatological baseline against the drying signal from the developing El Niño, with upcoming September model runs from NOAA and KMA likely to refine probabilities.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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