Recent ensemble runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Global Forecast System (GFS) form the main driver behind trader consensus, projecting a daily maximum near 30–32°C in Warsaw on August 10 under high-pressure subsidence that favors clear skies and strong daytime insolation. These models show modest spread around 29–33°C, with limited potential for higher readings unless southerly advection strengthens unexpectedly. Official Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) outlooks and surface observations through early August align with this range, consistent with climatological late-summer norms near 24–26°C but elevated by the prevailing warm anomaly. Updated model guidance expected within the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten probabilities around the 30°C and 31°C bins that currently hold the highest market-implied odds.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Warsaw on August 10?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on August 10?
30°C 36%
31°C 25%
29°C 16%
32°C 15%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 10, 2026
26°C or below
1%
27°C
1%
28°C
5%
29°C
16%
30°C
36%
31°C
25%
32°C
15%
33°C
2%
34°C
2%
35°C
1%
36°C or higher
<1%
30°C 36%
31°C 25%
29°C 16%
32°C 15%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 10, 2026
26°C or below
$13 Wol.
1%
27°C
$9 Wol.
1%
28°C
$104 Wol.
5%
29°C
$79 Wol.
16%
30°C
$80 Wol.
36%
31°C
$24 Wol.
25%
32°C
$101 Wol.
15%
33°C
$27 Wol.
2%
34°C
$28 Wol.
2%
35°C
$61 Wol.
1%
36°C or higher
$115 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Global Forecast System (GFS) form the main driver behind trader consensus, projecting a daily maximum near 30–32°C in Warsaw on August 10 under high-pressure subsidence that favors clear skies and strong daytime insolation. These models show modest spread around 29–33°C, with limited potential for higher readings unless southerly advection strengthens unexpectedly. Official Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) outlooks and surface observations through early August align with this range, consistent with climatological late-summer norms near 24–26°C but elevated by the prevailing warm anomaly. Updated model guidance expected within the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten probabilities around the 30°C and 31°C bins that currently hold the highest market-implied odds.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 8, 2026, 1:02 AM ET
Wolumen
$640Data zakończenia
Aug 10, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 8, 2026, 1:02 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Global Forecast System (GFS) form the main driver behind trader consensus, projecting a daily maximum near 30–32°C in Warsaw on August 10 under high-pressure subsidence that favors clear skies and strong daytime insolation. These models show modest spread around 29–33°C, with limited potential for higher readings unless southerly advection strengthens unexpectedly. Official Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) outlooks and surface observations through early August align with this range, consistent with climatological late-summer norms near 24–26°C but elevated by the prevailing warm anomaly. Updated model guidance expected within the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten probabilities around the 30°C and 31°C bins that currently hold the highest market-implied odds.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$640Data zakończenia
Aug 10, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 8, 2026, 1:02 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Global Forecast System (GFS) form the main driver behind trader consensus, projecting a daily maximum near 30–32°C in Warsaw on August 10 under high-pressure subsidence that favors clear skies and strong daytime insolation. These models show modest spread around 29–33°C, with limited potential for higher readings unless southerly advection strengthens unexpectedly. Official Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) outlooks and surface observations through early August align with this range, consistent with climatological late-summer norms near 24–26°C but elevated by the prevailing warm anomaly. Updated model guidance expected within the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten probabilities around the 30°C and 31°C bins that currently hold the highest market-implied odds.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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