The by-election in Holborn and St Pancras, triggered by Keir Starmer’s September 2026 resignation, pits Labour’s Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali against Green Party leader Zack Polanski in a contest shaped by recent local election trends and national leadership change under Andy Burnham. Projections place Labour’s vote share near 37 percent, down from 48.9 percent in 2024, while Greens poll around 28–33 percent amid strong local momentum and consolidated support from some progressive voters. Trader pricing on the 40–45 percent bracket reflects expectations of a competitive race where turnout patterns, tactical voting, and campaign focus on housing and cost-of-living issues could consolidate or fragment Labour support in the final weeks before the 8 October poll.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano40-45% 33%
35-40% 22%
45-50% 17%
50%+ 15%
NOWE
NOWE
Oct 8, 2026
<30%
11%
30-35%
11%
35-40%
22%
40-45%
33%
45-50%
17%
50%+
15%
40-45% 33%
35-40% 22%
45-50% 17%
50%+ 15%
NOWE
NOWE
Oct 8, 2026
<30%
$77 Wol.
11%
30-35%
$76 Wol.
11%
35-40%
$87 Wol.
22%
40-45%
$232 Wol.
33%
45-50%
$116 Wol.
17%
50%+
$208 Wol.
15%
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).The by-election in Holborn and St Pancras, triggered by Keir Starmer’s September 2026 resignation, pits Labour’s Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali against Green Party leader Zack Polanski in a contest shaped by recent local election trends and national leadership change under Andy Burnham. Projections place Labour’s vote share near 37 percent, down from 48.9 percent in 2024, while Greens poll around 28–33 percent amid strong local momentum and consolidated support from some progressive voters. Trader pricing on the 40–45 percent bracket reflects expectations of a competitive race where turnout patterns, tactical voting, and campaign focus on housing and cost-of-living issues could consolidate or fragment Labour support in the final weeks before the 8 October poll.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Rynek otwarty: Sep 14, 2026, 6:49 PM ET
Wolumen
$796Data zakończenia
Oct 8, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 14, 2026, 6:49 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).The by-election in Holborn and St Pancras, triggered by Keir Starmer’s September 2026 resignation, pits Labour’s Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali against Green Party leader Zack Polanski in a contest shaped by recent local election trends and national leadership change under Andy Burnham. Projections place Labour’s vote share near 37 percent, down from 48.9 percent in 2024, while Greens poll around 28–33 percent amid strong local momentum and consolidated support from some progressive voters. Trader pricing on the 40–45 percent bracket reflects expectations of a competitive race where turnout patterns, tactical voting, and campaign focus on housing and cost-of-living issues could consolidate or fragment Labour support in the final weeks before the 8 October poll.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Wolumen
$796Data zakończenia
Oct 8, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 14, 2026, 6:49 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...The by-election in Holborn and St Pancras, triggered by Keir Starmer’s September 2026 resignation, pits Labour’s Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali against Green Party leader Zack Polanski in a contest shaped by recent local election trends and national leadership change under Andy Burnham. Projections place Labour’s vote share near 37 percent, down from 48.9 percent in 2024, while Greens poll around 28–33 percent amid strong local momentum and consolidated support from some progressive voters. Trader pricing on the 40–45 percent bracket reflects expectations of a competitive race where turnout patterns, tactical voting, and campaign focus on housing and cost-of-living issues could consolidate or fragment Labour support in the final weeks before the 8 October poll.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania