Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 37% probability for Tesla exceeding 475,000 vehicle deliveries in Q2 2026, driven by a strong April rebound with European registrations surging over 100% year-over-year in key markets like France, Sweden, and Denmark, alongside China's 36% sales growth and 80% export jump from Giga Shanghai. Q1's 50,000-unit production surplus over deliveries positioned inventory for this Q2 ramp, offsetting earlier demand softness amid EV competition from BYD and tax credit losses. Lower bins like 375k–400k (24%) reflect analyst cuts to full-year growth forecasts, with uncertainty hinging on May U.S. and global momentum ahead of the early July report.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHow many Tesla deliveries in Q2 2026?
How many Tesla deliveries in Q2 2026?
475k+ 34.3%
450k–475k 23.2%
375k–400k 21%
425k–450k 16%
$41,747 Wol.
$41,747 Wol.
Jun 30, 2026
<300k
5%
300k–325k
1%
325k–350k
14%
350k–375k
14%
375k–400k
27%
400k–425k
15%
425k–450k
19%
450k–475k
23%
475k+
30%
475k+ 34.3%
450k–475k 23.2%
375k–400k 21%
425k–450k 16%
$41,747 Wol.
$41,747 Wol.
Jun 30, 2026
<300k
$5,209 Wol.
5%
300k–325k
$3,033 Wol.
1%
325k–350k
$3,129 Wol.
14%
350k–375k
$7,488 Wol.
14%
375k–400k
$3,917 Wol.
27%
400k–425k
$8,221 Wol.
15%
425k–450k
$4,129 Wol.
19%
450k–475k
$3,202 Wol.
23%
475k+
$3,419 Wol.
30%
This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q2 2026.
If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 37% probability for Tesla exceeding 475,000 vehicle deliveries in Q2 2026, driven by a strong April rebound with European registrations surging over 100% year-over-year in key markets like France, Sweden, and Denmark, alongside China's 36% sales growth and 80% export jump from Giga Shanghai. Q1's 50,000-unit production surplus over deliveries positioned inventory for this Q2 ramp, offsetting earlier demand softness amid EV competition from BYD and tax credit losses. Lower bins like 375k–400k (24%) reflect analyst cuts to full-year growth forecasts, with uncertainty hinging on May U.S. and global momentum ahead of the early July report.
This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q2 2026.
If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.
If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.
Rynek otwarty: Apr 3, 2026, 7:38 PM ET
Wolumen
$41,747Data zakończenia
Jun 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 3, 2026, 7:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q2 2026.
If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 37% probability for Tesla exceeding 475,000 vehicle deliveries in Q2 2026, driven by a strong April rebound with European registrations surging over 100% year-over-year in key markets like France, Sweden, and Denmark, alongside China's 36% sales growth and 80% export jump from Giga Shanghai. Q1's 50,000-unit production surplus over deliveries positioned inventory for this Q2 ramp, offsetting earlier demand softness amid EV competition from BYD and tax credit losses. Lower bins like 375k–400k (24%) reflect analyst cuts to full-year growth forecasts, with uncertainty hinging on May U.S. and global momentum ahead of the early July report.
This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q2 2026.
If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.
If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.
Wolumen
$41,747Data zakończenia
Jun 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 3, 2026, 7:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 37% probability for Tesla exceeding 475,000 vehicle deliveries in Q2 2026, driven by a strong April rebound with European registrations surging over 100% year-over-year in key markets like France, Sweden, and Denmark, alongside China's 36% sales growth and 80% export jump from Giga Shanghai. Q1's 50,000-unit production surplus over deliveries positioned inventory for this Q2 ramp, offsetting earlier demand softness amid EV competition from BYD and tax credit losses. Lower bins like 375k–400k (24%) reflect analyst cuts to full-year growth forecasts, with uncertainty hinging on May U.S. and global momentum ahead of the early July report.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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