NASA's Artemis program has repeatedly delayed its crewed lunar landing, with Artemis II completing only a flyby in April 2026 and Artemis III restructured as a 2027 Earth-orbit demonstration of docking with uncrewed SpaceX Starship and Blue Origin landers. The first surface mission is now targeted for Artemis IV in 2028, driven by ongoing challenges in Starship orbital refueling, heat shield performance, and spacesuit development. China’s human landing goal remains 2030, with its Chang’e 7 robotic mission limited to late 2026. This leaves no credible path for any crewed landing by year-end 2026, supporting the 99.1% “No” consensus while leaving room for last-minute private breakthroughs or further slips.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLądowanie człowieka na księżycu w 2026 roku?
Lądowanie człowieka na księżycu w 2026 roku?
Tak
<1% szansa
$1,967,830 Wol.
$1,967,830 Wol.
Dec 30, 2026
Tak
<1% szansa
$1,967,830 Wol.
$1,967,830 Wol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.NASA's Artemis program has repeatedly delayed its crewed lunar landing, with Artemis II completing only a flyby in April 2026 and Artemis III restructured as a 2027 Earth-orbit demonstration of docking with uncrewed SpaceX Starship and Blue Origin landers. The first surface mission is now targeted for Artemis IV in 2028, driven by ongoing challenges in Starship orbital refueling, heat shield performance, and spacesuit development. China’s human landing goal remains 2030, with its Chang’e 7 robotic mission limited to late 2026. This leaves no credible path for any crewed landing by year-end 2026, supporting the 99.1% “No” consensus while leaving room for last-minute private breakthroughs or further slips.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Jan 7, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
Wolumen
$1,967,830Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 7, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.NASA's Artemis program has repeatedly delayed its crewed lunar landing, with Artemis II completing only a flyby in April 2026 and Artemis III restructured as a 2027 Earth-orbit demonstration of docking with uncrewed SpaceX Starship and Blue Origin landers. The first surface mission is now targeted for Artemis IV in 2028, driven by ongoing challenges in Starship orbital refueling, heat shield performance, and spacesuit development. China’s human landing goal remains 2030, with its Chang’e 7 robotic mission limited to late 2026. This leaves no credible path for any crewed landing by year-end 2026, supporting the 99.1% “No” consensus while leaving room for last-minute private breakthroughs or further slips.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$1,967,830Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 7, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA's Artemis program has repeatedly delayed its crewed lunar landing, with Artemis II completing only a flyby in April 2026 and Artemis III restructured as a 2027 Earth-orbit demonstration of docking with uncrewed SpaceX Starship and Blue Origin landers. The first surface mission is now targeted for Artemis IV in 2028, driven by ongoing challenges in Starship orbital refueling, heat shield performance, and spacesuit development. China’s human landing goal remains 2030, with its Chang’e 7 robotic mission limited to late 2026. This leaves no credible path for any crewed landing by year-end 2026, supporting the 99.1% “No” consensus while leaving room for last-minute private breakthroughs or further slips.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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