Ongoing US-brokered talks in Washington have produced ceasefire extensions and limited security discussions, yet Lebanese officials continue to prioritize border stability and state sovereignty over any diplomatic normalization with Israel. Hezbollah maintains rocket and drone activity in violation of the truce, rejects participation in negotiations, and retains significant domestic influence that blocks policy shifts. Lebanon's constitutional restrictions and anti-normalization statutes remain in force, while public and political divisions further constrain progress toward embassies or formal ties. These structural barriers and the absence of Hezbollah disarmament sustain trader consensus that full diplomatic relations will not be established before the end of 2026.