Ongoing hostilities with Hezbollah, including its rejection of the June 2026 U.S.-brokered framework agreement on border security, Israeli withdrawals, and militia disarmament, remain the dominant barrier to Israel-Lebanon normalization before 2027. Recent rounds of direct talks, including the seventh session in Rome in early August, have focused on pilot zones and Lebanese Armed Forces deployment, yet retaliatory strikes and ceasefire violations have continued. Lebanese political constraints, including domestic opposition to full diplomatic ties and Hezbollah's retained influence, limit progress toward recognition, trade, or embassy-level relations. Trader consensus at 92% against reflects these structural hurdles and the short timeline relative to historical precedents for such diplomatic shifts.