Ongoing airstrikes and naval actions have defined the US-Israel campaign against Iran since late February 2026, with Israeli forces focusing ground maneuvers on southern Lebanon against Hezbollah rather than Iranian territory. Israeli officials have signaled reluctance to commit troops inside Iran, citing logistical barriers, high costs, and preference for air and special operations support alongside US efforts. Negotiations over Strait of Hormuz access and related ceasefires have further shifted attention away from escalation to large-scale ground commitments. Limited US planning for targeted raids has not extended to Israeli participation, while Iranian recruitment drives and defensive preparations underscore the risks of any invasion. Upcoming diplomatic talks and Hormuz shipping developments remain key variables that could influence whether confirmation of such an operation occurs.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoOperacja lądowa Izraela w Iranie potwierdzona przez...?
Operacja lądowa Izraela w Iranie potwierdzona przez...?
$1,731,744 Wol.
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
1%
December 31
17%
$1,731,744 Wol.
August 31
$49,754 Wol.
1%
December 31
$40,651 Wol.
17%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if participation by Israeli military personnel in a ground operation in Iran on or after February 28, 2026, is confirmed by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "ground operation" is defined as a military operation that involves Israeli military ground forces conducting operations within Iranian territory.
For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving Israeli troops on the ground within the terrestrial territory of Iran will qualify.
Official confirmation by the Israeli military of personnel operating on the ground within Iranian territory during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that the Israeli military personnel operated on the ground within Iranian territory during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as the June 25, 2025, statement by IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir confirmed that Israeli commando forces operated covertly on the ground inside Iran during the 12-day war.
Confirmations referring only to non-military Israeli intelligence activity, including operations by the Mossad or Shin Bet, as well as airstrikes, cyberattacks, standoff weapons, remote sabotage, or actions by proxies or third parties without Israeli military presence, will not alone qualify.
Incidents that would not alone suffice include the November 2025 Mossad statement indicating its agents were present during protests in Iran, or the July 31, 2024, assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, widely attributed to Mossad agents.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the Israeli military; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice. This market will resolve to "Yes" if participation by Israeli military personnel in a ground operation in Iran on or after February 28, 2026, is confirmed by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "ground operation" is defined as a military operation that involves Israeli military ground forces conducting operations within Iranian territory.
For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving Israeli troops on the ground within the terrestrial territory of Iran will qualify.
Official confirmation by the Israeli military of personnel operating on the ground within Iranian territory during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that the Israeli military personnel operated on the ground within Iranian territory during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as the June 25, 2025, statement by IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir confirming that Israeli commando forces operated covertly on the ground inside Iran during the 12-day war.
Confirmations referring only to non-military Israeli intelligence activity, including operations by the Mossad or Shin Bet, as well as airstrikes, cyberattacks, standoff weapons, remote sabotage, or actions by proxies or third parties without Israeli military presence, will not alone qualify.
Incidents that would not alone suffice include the November 2025 Mossad statement indicating its agents were present during protests in Iran, or the July 31, 2024, assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, widely attributed to Mossad agents.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the Israeli military; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice. Ongoing airstrikes and naval actions have defined the US-Israel campaign against Iran since late February 2026, with Israeli forces focusing ground maneuvers on southern Lebanon against Hezbollah rather than Iranian territory. Israeli officials have signaled reluctance to commit troops inside Iran, citing logistical barriers, high costs, and preference for air and special operations support alongside US efforts. Negotiations over Strait of Hormuz access and related ceasefires have further shifted attention away from escalation to large-scale ground commitments. Limited US planning for targeted raids has not extended to Israeli participation, while Iranian recruitment drives and defensive preparations underscore the risks of any invasion. Upcoming diplomatic talks and Hormuz shipping developments remain key variables that could influence whether confirmation of such an operation occurs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if participation by Israeli military personnel in a ground operation in Iran on or after February 28, 2026, is confirmed by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "ground operation" is defined as a military operation that involves Israeli military ground forces conducting operations within Iranian territory.
For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving Israeli troops on the ground within the terrestrial territory of Iran will qualify.
Official confirmation by the Israeli military of personnel operating on the ground within Iranian territory during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that the Israeli military personnel operated on the ground within Iranian territory during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as the June 25, 2025, statement by IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir confirmed that Israeli commando forces operated covertly on the ground inside Iran during the 12-day war.
Confirmations referring only to non-military Israeli intelligence activity, including operations by the Mossad or Shin Bet, as well as airstrikes, cyberattacks, standoff weapons, remote sabotage, or actions by proxies or third parties without Israeli military presence, will not alone qualify.
Incidents that would not alone suffice include the November 2025 Mossad statement indicating its agents were present during protests in Iran, or the July 31, 2024, assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, widely attributed to Mossad agents.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the Israeli military; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "ground operation" is defined as a military operation that involves Israeli military ground forces conducting operations within Iranian territory.
For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving Israeli troops on the ground within the terrestrial territory of Iran will qualify.
Official confirmation by the Israeli military of personnel operating on the ground within Iranian territory during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that the Israeli military personnel operated on the ground within Iranian territory during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as the June 25, 2025, statement by IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir confirmed that Israeli commando forces operated covertly on the ground inside Iran during the 12-day war.
Confirmations referring only to non-military Israeli intelligence activity, including operations by the Mossad or Shin Bet, as well as airstrikes, cyberattacks, standoff weapons, remote sabotage, or actions by proxies or third parties without Israeli military presence, will not alone qualify.
Incidents that would not alone suffice include the November 2025 Mossad statement indicating its agents were present during protests in Iran, or the July 31, 2024, assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, widely attributed to Mossad agents.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the Israeli military; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 29, 2026, 12:12 PM ET
Wolumen
$1,731,744Data zakończenia
May 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 29, 2026, 12:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if participation by Israeli military personnel in a ground operation in Iran on or after February 28, 2026, is confirmed by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "ground operation" is defined as a military operation that involves Israeli military ground forces conducting operations within Iranian territory.
For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving Israeli troops on the ground within the terrestrial territory of Iran will qualify.
Official confirmation by the Israeli military of personnel operating on the ground within Iranian territory during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that the Israeli military personnel operated on the ground within Iranian territory during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as the June 25, 2025, statement by IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir confirmed that Israeli commando forces operated covertly on the ground inside Iran during the 12-day war.
Confirmations referring only to non-military Israeli intelligence activity, including operations by the Mossad or Shin Bet, as well as airstrikes, cyberattacks, standoff weapons, remote sabotage, or actions by proxies or third parties without Israeli military presence, will not alone qualify.
Incidents that would not alone suffice include the November 2025 Mossad statement indicating its agents were present during protests in Iran, or the July 31, 2024, assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, widely attributed to Mossad agents.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the Israeli military; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice. This market will resolve to "Yes" if participation by Israeli military personnel in a ground operation in Iran on or after February 28, 2026, is confirmed by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "ground operation" is defined as a military operation that involves Israeli military ground forces conducting operations within Iranian territory.
For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving Israeli troops on the ground within the terrestrial territory of Iran will qualify.
Official confirmation by the Israeli military of personnel operating on the ground within Iranian territory during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that the Israeli military personnel operated on the ground within Iranian territory during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as the June 25, 2025, statement by IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir confirming that Israeli commando forces operated covertly on the ground inside Iran during the 12-day war.
Confirmations referring only to non-military Israeli intelligence activity, including operations by the Mossad or Shin Bet, as well as airstrikes, cyberattacks, standoff weapons, remote sabotage, or actions by proxies or third parties without Israeli military presence, will not alone qualify.
Incidents that would not alone suffice include the November 2025 Mossad statement indicating its agents were present during protests in Iran, or the July 31, 2024, assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, widely attributed to Mossad agents.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the Israeli military; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice. Ongoing airstrikes and naval actions have defined the US-Israel campaign against Iran since late February 2026, with Israeli forces focusing ground maneuvers on southern Lebanon against Hezbollah rather than Iranian territory. Israeli officials have signaled reluctance to commit troops inside Iran, citing logistical barriers, high costs, and preference for air and special operations support alongside US efforts. Negotiations over Strait of Hormuz access and related ceasefires have further shifted attention away from escalation to large-scale ground commitments. Limited US planning for targeted raids has not extended to Israeli participation, while Iranian recruitment drives and defensive preparations underscore the risks of any invasion. Upcoming diplomatic talks and Hormuz shipping developments remain key variables that could influence whether confirmation of such an operation occurs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if participation by Israeli military personnel in a ground operation in Iran on or after February 28, 2026, is confirmed by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "ground operation" is defined as a military operation that involves Israeli military ground forces conducting operations within Iranian territory.
For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving Israeli troops on the ground within the terrestrial territory of Iran will qualify.
Official confirmation by the Israeli military of personnel operating on the ground within Iranian territory during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that the Israeli military personnel operated on the ground within Iranian territory during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as the June 25, 2025, statement by IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir confirmed that Israeli commando forces operated covertly on the ground inside Iran during the 12-day war.
Confirmations referring only to non-military Israeli intelligence activity, including operations by the Mossad or Shin Bet, as well as airstrikes, cyberattacks, standoff weapons, remote sabotage, or actions by proxies or third parties without Israeli military presence, will not alone qualify.
Incidents that would not alone suffice include the November 2025 Mossad statement indicating its agents were present during protests in Iran, or the July 31, 2024, assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, widely attributed to Mossad agents.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the Israeli military; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "ground operation" is defined as a military operation that involves Israeli military ground forces conducting operations within Iranian territory.
For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving Israeli troops on the ground within the terrestrial territory of Iran will qualify.
Official confirmation by the Israeli military of personnel operating on the ground within Iranian territory during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that the Israeli military personnel operated on the ground within Iranian territory during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as the June 25, 2025, statement by IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir confirmed that Israeli commando forces operated covertly on the ground inside Iran during the 12-day war.
Confirmations referring only to non-military Israeli intelligence activity, including operations by the Mossad or Shin Bet, as well as airstrikes, cyberattacks, standoff weapons, remote sabotage, or actions by proxies or third parties without Israeli military presence, will not alone qualify.
Incidents that would not alone suffice include the November 2025 Mossad statement indicating its agents were present during protests in Iran, or the July 31, 2024, assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, widely attributed to Mossad agents.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the Israeli military; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Wolumen
$1,731,744Data zakończenia
May 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 29, 2026, 12:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing airstrikes and naval actions have defined the US-Israel campaign against Iran since late February 2026, with Israeli forces focusing ground maneuvers on southern Lebanon against Hezbollah rather than Iranian territory. Israeli officials have signaled reluctance to commit troops inside Iran, citing logistical barriers, high costs, and preference for air and special operations support alongside US efforts. Negotiations over Strait of Hormuz access and related ceasefires have further shifted attention away from escalation to large-scale ground commitments. Limited US planning for targeted raids has not extended to Israeli participation, while Iranian recruitment drives and defensive preparations underscore the risks of any invasion. Upcoming diplomatic talks and Hormuz shipping developments remain key variables that could influence whether confirmation of such an operation occurs.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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