Ongoing hostilities, Hezbollah's rejection of the June 2026 U.S.-brokered trilateral framework agreement, and explicit statements from Lebanese officials have anchored trader expectations against normalization. The framework addressed ceasefire implementation, Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, Lebanese Armed Forces deployment in the south, and Hezbollah disarmament under international oversight, yet the group declared the deal void while maintaining threats and influence. Lebanese leaders, including the prime minister, have described full diplomatic or economic ties as premature and contingent on a wider regional settlement, citing internal divisions, Hezbollah's entrenched role, and constitutional barriers. These dynamics, combined with the short timeline remaining before December 31, 2026, sustain the 92.5% implied probability on "No" as the prevailing trader consensus reflected in current pricing.