Recent Bank of Japan policy normalization, including the September 18 rate hike to 1.25%—the highest since 1995—and Governor Ueda’s signals of data-dependent further adjustments, has anchored trader sentiment toward higher Japan 10-year yields by year-end. With the benchmark yield trading near 2.98% amid accelerating core CPI, yen weakness, and elevated oil prices, markets price in a faster path to a higher terminal rate. Fiscal expansion under the Takaichi administration and reduced BOJ bond support add upward pressure on long-term yields. The 62%+ implied probability for a close above 3.0% reflects these factors, tempered by dissent on the pace of tightening and potential global yield moderation. Key near-term catalysts include October inflation data and the next Monetary Policy Meeting.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano3.0%+ 62.3%
2.8-3.0% 17.1%
2.4-2.6% 7.0%
2.6-2.8% 3.3%
$30,966 Wol.
$30,966 Wol.
Jan 31, 2027
<2.0%
1%
2.0-2.2%
2%
2.2-2.4%
<1%
2.4-2.6%
7%
2.6-2.8%
3%
2.8-3.0%
17%
3.0%+
62%
3.0%+ 62.3%
2.8-3.0% 17.1%
2.4-2.6% 7.0%
2.6-2.8% 3.3%
$30,966 Wol.
$30,966 Wol.
Jan 31, 2027
<2.0%
$1,370 Wol.
1%
2.0-2.2%
$1,701 Wol.
2%
2.2-2.4%
$1,263 Wol.
<1%
2.4-2.6%
$2,562 Wol.
7%
2.6-2.8%
$2,556 Wol.
3%
2.8-3.0%
$8,716 Wol.
17%
3.0%+
$12,797 Wol.
62%
This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.Recent Bank of Japan policy normalization, including the September 18 rate hike to 1.25%—the highest since 1995—and Governor Ueda’s signals of data-dependent further adjustments, has anchored trader sentiment toward higher Japan 10-year yields by year-end. With the benchmark yield trading near 2.98% amid accelerating core CPI, yen weakness, and elevated oil prices, markets price in a faster path to a higher terminal rate. Fiscal expansion under the Takaichi administration and reduced BOJ bond support add upward pressure on long-term yields. The 62%+ implied probability for a close above 3.0% reflects these factors, tempered by dissent on the pace of tightening and potential global yield moderation. Key near-term catalysts include October inflation data and the next Monetary Policy Meeting.
This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
Rynek otwarty: Jun 10, 2026, 4:35 PM ET
Wolumen
$30,966Data zakończenia
Feb 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jun 10, 2026, 4:35 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.Recent Bank of Japan policy normalization, including the September 18 rate hike to 1.25%—the highest since 1995—and Governor Ueda’s signals of data-dependent further adjustments, has anchored trader sentiment toward higher Japan 10-year yields by year-end. With the benchmark yield trading near 2.98% amid accelerating core CPI, yen weakness, and elevated oil prices, markets price in a faster path to a higher terminal rate. Fiscal expansion under the Takaichi administration and reduced BOJ bond support add upward pressure on long-term yields. The 62%+ implied probability for a close above 3.0% reflects these factors, tempered by dissent on the pace of tightening and potential global yield moderation. Key near-term catalysts include October inflation data and the next Monetary Policy Meeting.
This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
Wolumen
$30,966Data zakończenia
Feb 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jun 10, 2026, 4:35 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Recent Bank of Japan policy normalization, including the September 18 rate hike to 1.25%—the highest since 1995—and Governor Ueda’s signals of data-dependent further adjustments, has anchored trader sentiment toward higher Japan 10-year yields by year-end. With the benchmark yield trading near 2.98% amid accelerating core CPI, yen weakness, and elevated oil prices, markets price in a faster path to a higher terminal rate. Fiscal expansion under the Takaichi administration and reduced BOJ bond support add upward pressure on long-term yields. The 62%+ implied probability for a close above 3.0% reflects these factors, tempered by dissent on the pace of tightening and potential global yield moderation. Key near-term catalysts include October inflation data and the next Monetary Policy Meeting.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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