Recent heavy rainfall and cloud cover from a passing frontal system on September 20–21 have cooled surface conditions in Tokyo, creating uncertainty in overnight radiative cooling and minimum temperatures for September 22. Official JMA forecasts and ensemble models indicate a transition to mostly cloudy skies with lighter winds, yielding projected lows near 22–24°C, though variations in cloud persistence or residual moisture could push readings below 18°C or allow warmer advection to exceed 28°C. Historical September minima average around 19°C, but the current setup's model spread—driven by steering patterns and humidity levels—explains the near-even market-implied odds between the cooler and warmer extremes. Updated JMA guidance and observational data ahead of resolution will clarify thresholds.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in Tokyo on September 22?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on September 22?
23°C 47%
24°C 35%
22°C 34%
21°C 19%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 22, 2026
18°C or below
4%
19°C
5%
20°C
11%
21°C
19%
22°C
34%
23°C
47%
24°C
35%
25°C
11%
26°C
2%
27°C
2%
28°C or higher
2%
23°C 47%
24°C 35%
22°C 34%
21°C 19%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 22, 2026
18°C or below
$0 Wol.
4%
19°C
$0 Wol.
5%
20°C
$0 Wol.
11%
21°C
$0 Wol.
19%
22°C
$0 Wol.
34%
23°C
$86 Wol.
47%
24°C
$6 Wol.
35%
25°C
$0 Wol.
11%
26°C
$0 Wol.
2%
27°C
$0 Wol.
2%
28°C or higher
$0 Wol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent heavy rainfall and cloud cover from a passing frontal system on September 20–21 have cooled surface conditions in Tokyo, creating uncertainty in overnight radiative cooling and minimum temperatures for September 22. Official JMA forecasts and ensemble models indicate a transition to mostly cloudy skies with lighter winds, yielding projected lows near 22–24°C, though variations in cloud persistence or residual moisture could push readings below 18°C or allow warmer advection to exceed 28°C. Historical September minima average around 19°C, but the current setup's model spread—driven by steering patterns and humidity levels—explains the near-even market-implied odds between the cooler and warmer extremes. Updated JMA guidance and observational data ahead of resolution will clarify thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 20, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Wolumen
$92Data zakończenia
Sep 22, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 20, 2026, 12:29 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent heavy rainfall and cloud cover from a passing frontal system on September 20–21 have cooled surface conditions in Tokyo, creating uncertainty in overnight radiative cooling and minimum temperatures for September 22. Official JMA forecasts and ensemble models indicate a transition to mostly cloudy skies with lighter winds, yielding projected lows near 22–24°C, though variations in cloud persistence or residual moisture could push readings below 18°C or allow warmer advection to exceed 28°C. Historical September minima average around 19°C, but the current setup's model spread—driven by steering patterns and humidity levels—explains the near-even market-implied odds between the cooler and warmer extremes. Updated JMA guidance and observational data ahead of resolution will clarify thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$92Data zakończenia
Sep 22, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 20, 2026, 12:29 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Recent heavy rainfall and cloud cover from a passing frontal system on September 20–21 have cooled surface conditions in Tokyo, creating uncertainty in overnight radiative cooling and minimum temperatures for September 22. Official JMA forecasts and ensemble models indicate a transition to mostly cloudy skies with lighter winds, yielding projected lows near 22–24°C, though variations in cloud persistence or residual moisture could push readings below 18°C or allow warmer advection to exceed 28°C. Historical September minima average around 19°C, but the current setup's model spread—driven by steering patterns and humidity levels—explains the near-even market-implied odds between the cooler and warmer extremes. Updated JMA guidance and observational data ahead of resolution will clarify thresholds.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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