The Makerfield by-election on 18 June 2026 features Labour’s Andy Burnham as the clear frontrunner in a contest triggered by the resignation of the sitting Labour MP. Recent constituency polls place Burnham on 46-49% and Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon on 37-41%, with all other candidates—including Rebecca Shepherd of Restore Britain—below 8%. Reform’s strong performance in the 2024 general election and recent local contests across the constituency’s wards has established Kenyon as the principal challenger. This positioning under first-past-the-post rules leaves little room for any other candidate to overtake him for second place. Trader consensus on the 2nd-place market therefore reflects Kenyon’s consistent polling lead over the rest of the field and the absence of late developments that would elevate a minor-party contender.