Labour's recent poor local election results have intensified pressure on Prime Minister Keir Starmer, prompting Health Secretary Wes Streeting's resignation and a push for leadership change ahead of the autumn conference. Andy Burnham's strong showing in internal polls and allies' efforts to secure his return to Parliament via the Makerfield by-election have positioned him as the frontrunner among traders, reflecting his established regional base and devolution record. Other Labour figures including Wes Streeting and Angela Rayner remain in contention following her clearance on tax matters, while the "no change" outcome captures uncertainty over Starmer's resilience and the timeline for any contest. Upcoming by-election results and potential parliamentary maneuvers could further shift these implied probabilities.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoAndy Burnham 56.7%
Brak nowego premiera w 2026 roku 13%
Wes Streeting 10%
Angela Rayner 10%
$7,282,682 Wol.
$7,282,682 Wol.
Andy Burnham
57%
Brak nowego premiera w 2026 roku
13%
Wes Streeting
10%
Angela Rayner
10%
Ed Miliband
7%
Al Carns
4%
Nigel Farage
1%
Yvette Cooper
1%
Shabana Mahmood
1%
Lucy Powell
<1%
Rupert Lowe
<1%
Rachel Reeves
<1%
Kemi Badenoch
<1%
Boris Johnson
<1%
Ed Davey
<1%
Bridget Phillipson
<1%
Robert Jenrick
<1%
David Lammy
<1%
James Cleverly
<1%
Darren Jones
<1%
John Healey
<1%
Andy Burnham 56.7%
Brak nowego premiera w 2026 roku 13%
Wes Streeting 10%
Angela Rayner 10%
$7,282,682 Wol.
$7,282,682 Wol.
Andy Burnham
57%
Brak nowego premiera w 2026 roku
13%
Wes Streeting
10%
Angela Rayner
10%
Ed Miliband
7%
Al Carns
4%
Nigel Farage
1%
Yvette Cooper
1%
Shabana Mahmood
1%
Lucy Powell
<1%
Rupert Lowe
<1%
Rachel Reeves
<1%
Kemi Badenoch
<1%
Boris Johnson
<1%
Ed Davey
<1%
Bridget Phillipson
<1%
Robert Jenrick
<1%
David Lammy
<1%
James Cleverly
<1%
Darren Jones
<1%
John Healey
<1%
To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Feb 5, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Labour's recent poor local election results have intensified pressure on Prime Minister Keir Starmer, prompting Health Secretary Wes Streeting's resignation and a push for leadership change ahead of the autumn conference. Andy Burnham's strong showing in internal polls and allies' efforts to secure his return to Parliament via the Makerfield by-election have positioned him as the frontrunner among traders, reflecting his established regional base and devolution record. Other Labour figures including Wes Streeting and Angela Rayner remain in contention following her clearance on tax matters, while the "no change" outcome captures uncertainty over Starmer's resilience and the timeline for any contest. Upcoming by-election results and potential parliamentary maneuvers could further shift these implied probabilities.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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