**H.R. 22 (the SAVE Act) passed the House in April 2025 and again in February 2026 versions but has remained stalled in the Senate throughout 2026.** The bill requires documentary proof of U.S. citizenship for federal voter registration and has faced repeated procedural hurdles, including the 60-vote threshold to overcome a filibuster. With Republicans holding 53 seats, the measure needs cross-aisle support that has not materialized, and at least one Republican senator has opposed cloture efforts. Recent attempts to advance related provisions—such as inclusion in the NDAA for fiscal year 2027 or through budget reconciliation with $10 billion in proposed incentives—have advanced only in the House or remained in early stages without Senate passage as of mid-August 2026. Traders price the “No” outcome at 93.5% because the legislative calendar leaves limited time for Senate action, conference resolution, and presidential signature before year-end, and no breakthrough votes or procedural changes have occurred to alter that trajectory.