The Supreme Court's conservative majority signaled strong skepticism toward state laws allowing mail ballots postmarked by Election Day to arrive and be counted afterward, during March oral arguments in Watson v. Republican National Committee. Challengers from the Republican National Committee argue that federal statutes fixing Election Day require ballots to reach officials by that date, a position several justices appeared ready to endorse. The pending decision, expected by late June or early July, could nullify grace periods in roughly 14 states and the District of Columbia ahead of the 2026 midterms. Traders assign a 69 percent implied probability to a ruling barring late ballots because the Court's composition and questioning during arguments point to preemption of those state practices, though a narrower holding or unexpected liberal alignment could still alter the outcome.