**OpenAI’s dominant 82.5% implied probability for second-best AI agent lab by end of August 2026 reflects its rapid enterprise-scale deployment of agentic systems, including the July launch of OpenAI Presence for production workflows and the Codex-powered Agents SDK with sandboxed tool use.** Traders view Anthropic’s Claude (particularly Claude Code and the Claude Agent SDK with deep hierarchical subagent support) as the current leader on benchmarks like coding autonomy and long-context reliability, positioning OpenAI as the clear runner-up due to broader adoption, revenue momentum exceeding $25B annualized, and integrations across enterprise tools. Recent August developments—such as OpenAI pausing aspects of the Astra model over cybersecurity risks from autonomous agents—have not materially dented sentiment, as they underscore capability thresholds while the company continues shipping practical agent infrastructure. Lower-probability outcomes like Moonshot, ByteDance, or Anthropic itself trail sharply because of narrower enterprise reach, less mature agent frameworks, and limited recent verified progress on production-grade autonomy compared with the top two U.S. labs. Market-implied odds align with trader focus on shipped products, benchmark leadership, and real-world deployment over speculative roadmaps.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoSecond-best AI Agent Lab end of August?
Second-best AI Agent Lab end of August?
OpenAI 83%
SpaceXAI 6.6%
Moonshot 6%
ByteDance 6%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 31, 2026
OpenAI
83%
SpaceXAI
7%
Moonshot
6%
ByteDance
6%
Anthropic
6%
Xiaomi
6%
Z.ai
5%
Mistral
5%
Alibaba
4%
Nvidia
1%
Baidu
1%
Microsoft
1%
Meta
1%
1%
DeepSeek
1%
MiniMax
1%
Meituan
1%
Amazon
<1%
OpenAI 83%
SpaceXAI 6.6%
Moonshot 6%
ByteDance 6%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 31, 2026
OpenAI
$1,154 Wol.
83%
SpaceXAI
$116 Wol.
7%
Moonshot
$127 Wol.
6%
ByteDance
$276 Wol.
6%
Anthropic
$154 Wol.
6%
Xiaomi
$136 Wol.
6%
Z.ai
$116 Wol.
5%
Mistral
$142 Wol.
5%
Alibaba
$125 Wol.
4%
Nvidia
$126 Wol.
1%
Baidu
$204 Wol.
1%
Microsoft
$195 Wol.
1%
Meta
$97 Wol.
1%
$76 Wol.
1%
DeepSeek
$116 Wol.
1%
MiniMax
$126 Wol.
1%
Meituan
$70 Wol.
1%
Amazon
$84 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".**OpenAI’s dominant 82.5% implied probability for second-best AI agent lab by end of August 2026 reflects its rapid enterprise-scale deployment of agentic systems, including the July launch of OpenAI Presence for production workflows and the Codex-powered Agents SDK with sandboxed tool use.**
Traders view Anthropic’s Claude (particularly Claude Code and the Claude Agent SDK with deep hierarchical subagent support) as the current leader on benchmarks like coding autonomy and long-context reliability, positioning OpenAI as the clear runner-up due to broader adoption, revenue momentum exceeding $25B annualized, and integrations across enterprise tools. Recent August developments—such as OpenAI pausing aspects of the Astra model over cybersecurity risks from autonomous agents—have not materially dented sentiment, as they underscore capability thresholds while the company continues shipping practical agent infrastructure. Lower-probability outcomes like Moonshot, ByteDance, or Anthropic itself trail sharply because of narrower enterprise reach, less mature agent frameworks, and limited recent verified progress on production-grade autonomy compared with the top two U.S. labs. Market-implied odds align with trader focus on shipped products, benchmark leadership, and real-world deployment over speculative roadmaps.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Rynek otwarty: Aug 12, 2026, 7:39 PM ET
Wolumen
$3,440Data zakończenia
Aug 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 12, 2026, 7:39 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agentResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".**OpenAI’s dominant 82.5% implied probability for second-best AI agent lab by end of August 2026 reflects its rapid enterprise-scale deployment of agentic systems, including the July launch of OpenAI Presence for production workflows and the Codex-powered Agents SDK with sandboxed tool use.**
Traders view Anthropic’s Claude (particularly Claude Code and the Claude Agent SDK with deep hierarchical subagent support) as the current leader on benchmarks like coding autonomy and long-context reliability, positioning OpenAI as the clear runner-up due to broader adoption, revenue momentum exceeding $25B annualized, and integrations across enterprise tools. Recent August developments—such as OpenAI pausing aspects of the Astra model over cybersecurity risks from autonomous agents—have not materially dented sentiment, as they underscore capability thresholds while the company continues shipping practical agent infrastructure. Lower-probability outcomes like Moonshot, ByteDance, or Anthropic itself trail sharply because of narrower enterprise reach, less mature agent frameworks, and limited recent verified progress on production-grade autonomy compared with the top two U.S. labs. Market-implied odds align with trader focus on shipped products, benchmark leadership, and real-world deployment over speculative roadmaps.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Wolumen
$3,440Data zakończenia
Aug 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 12, 2026, 7:39 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agentResolver
0x69c47De9D...**OpenAI’s dominant 82.5% implied probability for second-best AI agent lab by end of August 2026 reflects its rapid enterprise-scale deployment of agentic systems, including the July launch of OpenAI Presence for production workflows and the Codex-powered Agents SDK with sandboxed tool use.** Traders view Anthropic’s Claude (particularly Claude Code and the Claude Agent SDK with deep hierarchical subagent support) as the current leader on benchmarks like coding autonomy and long-context reliability, positioning OpenAI as the clear runner-up due to broader adoption, revenue momentum exceeding $25B annualized, and integrations across enterprise tools. Recent August developments—such as OpenAI pausing aspects of the Astra model over cybersecurity risks from autonomous agents—have not materially dented sentiment, as they underscore capability thresholds while the company continues shipping practical agent infrastructure. Lower-probability outcomes like Moonshot, ByteDance, or Anthropic itself trail sharply because of narrower enterprise reach, less mature agent frameworks, and limited recent verified progress on production-grade autonomy compared with the top two U.S. labs. Market-implied odds align with trader focus on shipped products, benchmark leadership, and real-world deployment over speculative roadmaps.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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