Trader consensus prices "No" at 92.5% for US military draft authorization in 2026, reflecting the absence of any congressional bill or vote to amend the Military Selective Service Act for actual inductions, which requires separate emergency legislation and presidential approval beyond existing Selective Service maintenance. The FY 2026 National Defense Authorization Act, signed by President Trump in December 2025, merely mandates automatic registration of eligible men aged 18-26 starting December 18, 2026—streamlining the dormant registry without reinstating conscription, as clarified in April agency announcements amid recruitment shortfalls addressed via enlistment age expansions and incentives. Geopolitical tensions with Iran persist, but no momentum for draft activation has emerged, with historical all-volunteer force policy intact since 1973; late-breaking national emergency declarations could shift odds.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano$250,122 Wol.
$250,122 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
$250,122 Wol.
$250,122 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 92.5% for US military draft authorization in 2026, reflecting the absence of any congressional bill or vote to amend the Military Selective Service Act for actual inductions, which requires separate emergency legislation and presidential approval beyond existing Selective Service maintenance. The FY 2026 National Defense Authorization Act, signed by President Trump in December 2025, merely mandates automatic registration of eligible men aged 18-26 starting December 18, 2026—streamlining the dormant registry without reinstating conscription, as clarified in April agency announcements amid recruitment shortfalls addressed via enlistment age expansions and incentives. Geopolitical tensions with Iran persist, but no momentum for draft activation has emerged, with historical all-volunteer force policy intact since 1973; late-breaking national emergency declarations could shift odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ET
Wolumen
$250,122Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 92.5% for US military draft authorization in 2026, reflecting the absence of any congressional bill or vote to amend the Military Selective Service Act for actual inductions, which requires separate emergency legislation and presidential approval beyond existing Selective Service maintenance. The FY 2026 National Defense Authorization Act, signed by President Trump in December 2025, merely mandates automatic registration of eligible men aged 18-26 starting December 18, 2026—streamlining the dormant registry without reinstating conscription, as clarified in April agency announcements amid recruitment shortfalls addressed via enlistment age expansions and incentives. Geopolitical tensions with Iran persist, but no momentum for draft activation has emerged, with historical all-volunteer force policy intact since 1973; late-breaking national emergency declarations could shift odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$250,122Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 92.5% for US military draft authorization in 2026, reflecting the absence of any congressional bill or vote to amend the Military Selective Service Act for actual inductions, which requires separate emergency legislation and presidential approval beyond existing Selective Service maintenance. The FY 2026 National Defense Authorization Act, signed by President Trump in December 2025, merely mandates automatic registration of eligible men aged 18-26 starting December 18, 2026—streamlining the dormant registry without reinstating conscription, as clarified in April agency announcements amid recruitment shortfalls addressed via enlistment age expansions and incentives. Geopolitical tensions with Iran persist, but no momentum for draft activation has emerged, with historical all-volunteer force policy intact since 1973; late-breaking national emergency declarations could shift odds.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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