US naval operations amid the ongoing Iran conflict represent the dominant factor shaping expectations for Strait of Hormuz transits through year-end. Central Command has facilitated over 1,500 escorted commercial movements since June, with carriers and destroyers maintaining presence despite Iranian missile and drone incidents targeting both warships and tankers. This activity has supported partial recovery in crude flows—recent estimates place daily volumes near 7-8 million barrels versus pre-crisis levels above 20 million—while elevating VLCC rates above $1 million per day at peaks and pushing Brent toward $98. Multinational statements involving the UK, France, and Gulf partners signal potential additional naval involvement, though progress hinges on mediation addressing Iranian conditions for sustained access. Oil price volatility and tanker charter dynamics will likely reflect any shifts in escort frequency or de-escalation signals ahead of December 31.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWhich countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31?
Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31?
$49,373 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
US
26%
Australia
20%
Italy
18%
France
14%
UK
13%
Germany
9%
Greece
11%
Netherlands
5%
$49,373 Wol.
US
$18,478 Wol.
26%
Australia
$0 Wol.
20%
Italy
$61 Wol.
18%
France
$14,158 Wol.
14%
UK
$145 Wol.
13%
Germany
$21 Wol.
9%
Greece
$52 Wol.
11%
Netherlands
$16,457 Wol.
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.US naval operations amid the ongoing Iran conflict represent the dominant factor shaping expectations for Strait of Hormuz transits through year-end. Central Command has facilitated over 1,500 escorted commercial movements since June, with carriers and destroyers maintaining presence despite Iranian missile and drone incidents targeting both warships and tankers. This activity has supported partial recovery in crude flows—recent estimates place daily volumes near 7-8 million barrels versus pre-crisis levels above 20 million—while elevating VLCC rates above $1 million per day at peaks and pushing Brent toward $98. Multinational statements involving the UK, France, and Gulf partners signal potential additional naval involvement, though progress hinges on mediation addressing Iranian conditions for sustained access. Oil price volatility and tanker charter dynamics will likely reflect any shifts in escort frequency or de-escalation signals ahead of December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 26, 2026, 6:17 PM ET
Wolumen
$49,373Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Aug 26, 2026, 6:17 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.US naval operations amid the ongoing Iran conflict represent the dominant factor shaping expectations for Strait of Hormuz transits through year-end. Central Command has facilitated over 1,500 escorted commercial movements since June, with carriers and destroyers maintaining presence despite Iranian missile and drone incidents targeting both warships and tankers. This activity has supported partial recovery in crude flows—recent estimates place daily volumes near 7-8 million barrels versus pre-crisis levels above 20 million—while elevating VLCC rates above $1 million per day at peaks and pushing Brent toward $98. Multinational statements involving the UK, France, and Gulf partners signal potential additional naval involvement, though progress hinges on mediation addressing Iranian conditions for sustained access. Oil price volatility and tanker charter dynamics will likely reflect any shifts in escort frequency or de-escalation signals ahead of December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Wolumen
$49,373Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Aug 26, 2026, 6:17 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...US naval operations amid the ongoing Iran conflict represent the dominant factor shaping expectations for Strait of Hormuz transits through year-end. Central Command has facilitated over 1,500 escorted commercial movements since June, with carriers and destroyers maintaining presence despite Iranian missile and drone incidents targeting both warships and tankers. This activity has supported partial recovery in crude flows—recent estimates place daily volumes near 7-8 million barrels versus pre-crisis levels above 20 million—while elevating VLCC rates above $1 million per day at peaks and pushing Brent toward $98. Multinational statements involving the UK, France, and Gulf partners signal potential additional naval involvement, though progress hinges on mediation addressing Iranian conditions for sustained access. Oil price volatility and tanker charter dynamics will likely reflect any shifts in escort frequency or de-escalation signals ahead of December 31.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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